Night 2 of the Creative Arts Emmy Awards kicked off with Outstanding Casting for a Comedy Series, Drama Series and Limited or Anthology Series, won by HBO’s Succession (casting directors Avy Kaufman and Francine Maisler), ABC’s Abbott Elementary (Wendy O’Brien) and HBO’s White Lotus (Meredith Tucker, Katie Doyle), respectively.
Last year, the winners in the three casting categories all went on to triumph in the marquee scripted categories — Outstanding Drama, Comedy and Limited or Anthology Series — a week later.
While Succession and White Lotus are leading most Emmy winners predictors in the Drama and Limited or Anthology Series fields and came into the the ceremonies with the most (25, Succession) and second most (20, White Lotus) nominations this year, hot newcomer Abbott Elementary has been in a tight race with awards juggernaut sophomores, last year’s Comedy Series winner Ted Lasso (20 nominations) and Hacks (17), as well as another standout first-year show, Hulu’s Only Murders In the Building (17), which round out the Top 5 most nominated series this year. Abbott Elementary has 7 noms, including three for creator/executive producer/star Quinta Brunson, a record for a Black woman.
Casting for a Comedy Series category has been a reliable predictor for the Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy winner. The last seven shows to take home the Casting For a Comedy Series statuette have all gone on to also win the Outstanding Comedy Series category a week later. That includes last year’s big Emmy winner Ted Lasso and fellow dominant 2020 winner Schitt’s Creek.
If Abbott Elementary follows the pattern, the school comedy would be the first broadcast half-hour to win the Outstanding Comedy Series category since another ABC single-camera comedy using the mocumentary format, Modern Family, landed its fifth consecutive win in the category in 2014.
One factor that should be considered is that the TV Academy sometimes shows inertia, sticking with favorites for awhile. While the three consecutive Outstanding Casting wins for Veep were matched by three consecutive Outstanding Comedy wins the same years, the overlap for Modern Family was only in the first year. The ABC hit won Outstanding Comedy Series for the following four years, while the Casting For a Comedy Series category went to four other shows. Ted Lasso currently has the edge in most prognostications but, as the Casting win for Abbott Elementary proves, Comedy Series may be the most competitive top category this year.
Casting for Drama Series is a little less reliable in predicting the eventual Outstanding Drama Series winner; it has successfully done so in five of the last seven years, including last two years with The Crown and Succession. The latter is back in Emmy contention full force after sitting out the 2021 awards cycle.
The winners in the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series (and its predecessors, Outstanding Limited Series, Miniseries, Miseries Or Movie) have very closely followed the winners in the corresponding casting category over the last two decades, with only a couple of deviations, including only one in the past 10 years. The Queen’s Gambit and Watchmen took the long-form casting category the last two years before also winning the Outstanding Limited/Anthology Series during the main telecast. White Lotus is looking to do the same.
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