DANIEL JOHNSON: PM must give us a Conservative vision of Britain we can believe in
These are bleak times for the Conservatives. The party suffered a double defeat in Thursday’s by-elections – not because the opposition parties did particularly well, but because the Tory vote collapsed.
The loss of marginal Wakefield to Labour would have been bad enough, but Tiverton and Honiton was shattering. When safe seats like this one – or two others last year – are lost, some backbenchers are bound to panic.
Oliver Dowden, the party chairman, has rightly taken responsibility for this ‘run of very poor results’. But the malcontents have been quick to pin the blame on Boris Johnson.
Of course, the buck stops with the Prime Minister. He has made his share of mistakes. Many have not yet forgiven him for Partygate.
It doesn’t help that Boris happens to be attending summits in Africa and Europe. We might prefer him to be at home to face the music, but representing Britain abroad is part of the PM’s job.
Boris Johnson’s greatest strength is his ability to bounce back. After such a double defeat, he will need all his remarkable resilience.
Boris Johnson’s greatest strength is his ability to bounce back. After such a double defeat, he will need all his remarkable resilience
But he also needs to grasp how the coalition of voters he assembled in 2019 has fallen apart and why so many have deserted the party. Only when this Government returns to proper Conservative policies – low taxes, taking control of migration and making the most of Brexit – will people come out to vote for it.
And before Conservatives wallow in gloom or engage in recriminations, they need to know that Sir Keir Starmer is not on course to be Prime Minister.
His result in Wakefield (a swing to Labour of 13 per cent) was similar to that in Corby in 2012.
That was the previous time Labour gained a seat in a by-election – and they went on to lose the 2015 general election.
The truth is that Sir Keir is doing no better as Labour leader than Ed Miliband at the same point in the electoral cycle. In a national poll just before the by-elections, the Conservatives were on 34 per cent, only two points behind Labour, with the Liberal Democrats on 13 per cent.
In both Tiverton and Wakefield, the Tories lost partly because of tactical voting but mainly because more than half of their voters stayed at home.
The silver lining for Boris Johnson is that there is little sign of enthusiasm for either Sir Keir’s Labour Party or Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems. What happened this week was not an endorsement of them but a mass abstention by the voters. The real question is: why?
The most obvious reason is, as Boris acknowledged, the cost of living. Inflation is at its highest since 1982 and a recession is round the corner. Families are going through the worst squeeze on household incomes in a generation – not least in post-industrial Yorkshire and rural Devon.
And before Conservatives wallow in gloom or engage in recriminations, they need to know that Sir Keir Starmer is not on course to be Prime Minister
In such conditions, any government would be unpopular. After two years of pandemic, people hoped for a respite. Instead, many are struggling to make ends meet. They deserve better.
The answer to such hardship should not be to ape the Left by throwing money at every problem, but to target help only at those who really need it and cut taxes for the rest of us.
First, Boris Johnson should cut fuel duty and other energy taxes. When other countries such as Germany are burning coal and rationing gas, it is absurd for Britain to stick rigidly to unrealistic net-zero targets.
Second, he should not only reverse the recent increase in national insurance, but make cutting taxes the Government’s top priority. It will make Britain more competitive and only then will millions who voted for Brexit see the benefits of our independence.
Third, he must take swift action to stop the European Court of Human Rights interfering in British policy on illegal migration. Tories are taking flak on this, but the liberal elite is, as usual, unrepresentative of the population.
In both Tiverton and Wakefield, the Tories lost partly because of tactical voting but mainly because more than half of their voters stayed at home
A recent poll found that more than half of voters think the Rwanda asylum policy is ‘about right’ or ‘too relaxed’, while fewer than a quarter find it ‘too tough’.
Fourth, Boris must turn our schools into places where teachers teach and children learn: real knowledge, not woke propaganda. That means hundreds more heads like Katharine Birbalsingh, ‘Britain’s strictest headmistress’ who, sensibly, has been appointed the social mobility tsar.
There is far more to be done: on home ownership, levelling up and encouraging free enterprise, for example. Boris needs a plan to get Britain back on track – and then stick to it.
Margaret Thatcher turned an ailing economy round and was re-elected by a landslide.
Boris must, like her, defeat striking union militants to drive down inflation. That will take time, but who else is there to get the job done?
If the PM can quickly change the direction of travel, disillusioned voters will return.
Many people who elected him to get Brexit done would vote for him again – but only if he gives them a Conservative vision of Britain that they can believe in.
- Daniel Johnson is founding editor of TheArticle
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