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Voters have cut their support for Labor from 42 to 40 per cent over the past month while cooling on the party and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on key benchmarks including leadership, vision and competence.
The shift in sentiment has also delivered a small gain to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton when voters are asked about their preferred prime minister, with his support increasing from 20 to 22 per cent.
But an exclusive survey shows that Albanese retains a powerful lead as preferred prime minister, favoured by 53 per cent of voters, and Labor is far ahead of the Coalition on core support and its handling of major policies.
The research, conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, shows the Coalition primary vote is steady at 30 per cent, the Greens have increased their support slightly to 12 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is also marginally higher at 6 per cent.
This means Labor leads the Coalition by 40 per cent to 30 per cent, a significant shift since the last election when the parties recorded 32.6 per cent and 35.7 per cent of primary votes respectively.
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1606 eligible voters from Tuesday to Sunday, generating results with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.
Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the results, a key difference from some other surveys.
Asked about Albanese in the latest survey, 53 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job and 35 per cent said he was doing a poor job, resulting in a net performance rating of 18 points. His net rating is down from 27 percentage points last month and 35 points in January.
Asked about Dutton, 28 per cent said he was doing a good job and 48 per cent said he was doing a poor job, producing a net rating of minus 20 points, similar to the outcome last month but worse than the net figure of 17 points in January.
While the changes in primary vote were within the margin of error, the shift against Labor on other counts was more significant and more widespread.
When voters were asked which party and leader were listening and focused on the right issues, 34 per cent favoured Labor and Albanese and 19 per cent preferred the Coalition and Dutton. The results were 38 per cent and 18 per cent last month.
Asked who was offering strong leadership, 42 per cent chose Labor and Albanese and 20 per cent chose the Coalition and Dutton. The results last month were 46 per cent and 18 per cent.
Asked which side was competent, 39 per cent chose Labor and Albanese and 23 per cent chose the Coalition and Dutton. The results last month were 43 per cent and 20 per cent.
Asked who had a vision for the future, 37 per cent chose Labor and Albanese and 22 per cent chose the Coalition and Dutton. The result last month was 42 per cent and 20 per cent.
The number of undecided voters increased on these and other measures.
Labor and Albanese continue to hold leads over the Coalition and Dutton on major policies, with 34 per cent of voters favouring the government on managing the economy compared to 31 per cent who prefer the opposition.
The gap on economic management has narrowed, however, from 38 per cent and 29 per cent in the week after the May budget. The government was on 36 per cent and the Coalition was on 30 per cent in the April survey.
The two sides are evenly matched on national security and the opposition has a marginal lead on immigration and refugees, an issue where 29 per cent favour Labor and 30 per cent prefer the Coalition.
Asked which side is best at jobs and wages, 42 per cent prefer Labor and Albanese while 23 per cent prefer the Coalition and Dutton. Support for the government on this measure was 47 per cent one month ago, but there was no change in the Coalition’s support.
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