THE flu season could hit as early as October, experts fear, only a month after the NHS vaccine rollout starts.
Combined with Covid and the cost-of-living crisis, it could spell a surge in deaths.
Last year 30 million people in England were offered the life-saving jab, according to the Department of Health.
But an additional 11 million are being invited this year, after the Government chose to give those aged 50 to 64 years and children in years 7 to 9 a free jab, too.
Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at the UK Health Security Agency, said this was to “reduce the number of people getting seriously ill and ease pressures on the NHS” in the winter.
Usually flu peaks in December, four months after doses are given from September.
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Saffron Cordery, the interim chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents trusts in England, warned that the effects of flu could be felt as early as October.
Ms Cordery said this year flu had “come early and severely to parts of the southern hemisphere” that are in winter, such as Australia.
“We’re going to see it here potentially biting in October,” she told The Independent.
That would greatly extend the “winter crisis” in the health service, she added.
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Dr Sarah Pitt, a microbiologist at the University of Brighton, also told the paper that what has happened in Australia could happen here.
Cases in Australia are up to 10 times higher than average.
“I agree that we should be preparing for both high numbers of influenza cases and an early start to the season here in Europe,” Dr Pitt said.
“I would have thought it should be possible to start (the vaccination programme) a week or two early, and to start publicising it.”
Professor Matt Keeling, epidemiologist at Warwick University whose expectation is that flu will peak in late November – said “unfortunately, an earlier roll-out of the vaccine was impossible”.
He added: “The vaccine takes time to manufacture and we can only deploy it once it gets delivered into the UK from the manufacturers.”
It comes after pharmacists expressed fears there will not be enough doses of the flu jab to stretch to additional people.
Dr Leyla Hannbeck, chief executive of the Association of Independent Multiple Pharmacies (AIMp), told The Sun the group was “worried” about supplies.
Similarly, the Pharmaceutical Services Negotiating Committee (PSNC), which represents all 11,200 pharmacies across England, said that the Government’s last minute turnaround to include over 50s will cause problems.
Alastair Buxton, Director of NHS Services at PSNC, said: “The delayed start to eligibility for the 50-64 years old cohort will cause confusion and frustration to many patients, which pharmacy teams will inevitably need to manage, adding further pressure to their already challenging workload.”
Leading pharmacies Boots and LloydsPharmacy have already opened their flu vaccine booking services, offering the free NHS jab and for a cost for those not eligible.
Lloyds said it had already generated over 53,000 sign ups.
And Boots said that since May, 110,000 customers registered to be the first to know when appointments were available – a 27 per cent increase on last year’s pre-booking registrations.
Meanwhile, all over 50s, vulnerable people and healthcare workers will get a Covid booster shot from September.
Millions of doses are already on order for the NHS’s autumn rollout to cover 26m people, starting in September.
NHS bosses have already given an ominous warning of the most “difficult winter on record” ahead, with the double-whammy of Covid, flu, and now the cost-of-living crisis.
The NHS Confederation sent a letter to ministers in August warning that surging costs mean people will have to choose between skipping meals to heat their homes.
Health leaders said they are concerned to see a jump in annual deaths associated with cold homes – estimated at 10,000.
NHS Confederation chief executive Matthew Taylor said: “The country is facing a humanitarian crisis.
“Many people could face the awful choice between skipping meals to heat their homes and having to live in in cold, damp and very unpleasant conditions.
“This in turn could lead to outbreaks of illness and sickness around the country and widen health inequalities, worsen children’s life chances, and leave an indelible scar on local communities.”
Mr Taylor said these outbreaks of illness will strike “just as the NHS is likely to experience the most difficult winter on record”.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said:
“We’re very conscious of the very real challenges that this winter may pose for the NHS. Preparations are well underway to anticipate these challenges.
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“Flu vaccines will be given to the most vulnerable groups starting next month before being expanded to other eligible groups.
“The NHS has also set out further measures to rapidly boost overall capacity and resilience ahead of this winter, such as creating the equivalent of at least 7,000 more beds, including through innovative virtual wards.”
Who is eligible for a free flu jab this year, and how can you get one?
The groups that are eligible for the flu vaccine this coming season are:
- all children aged 2 or 3 years on 31 August 2022
- all primary school aged children (from reception to Year 6)
- those aged 6 months to under 65 years in clinical risk groups
- pregnant women
- those aged 65 years and over
- those in long-stay residential care homes
- carers
- close contacts of immunocompromised individuals
- frontline staff employed by the following types of social care providers without employer led occupational health schemes:
- a registered residential care or nursing home
- registered domiciliary care provider
- a voluntary managed hospice provider
- Direct Payment (personal budgets) or Personal Health Budgets, such as Personal Assistants
Later in the season, jabs will be given to:
- All adults aged 50 to 64 years
- Secondary school children in years 7, 8 and 9, who will be offered the vaccine in order of school year (starting with the youngest first)
Where can you get the jab?
You can have the NHS flu vaccine at:
- your GP surgery
- a pharmacy offering the service
- your midwifery service if you're pregnant
- a hospital appointment
You can book an appointment yourself, and may also get an invitation – but you do not have to wait for this before booking an appointment.
In July, the Department of Health said the NHS will announce in due course when people aged 50 to 64 years old who are not in a clinical risk group will be able to get their free flu jab.
People in these groups are asked not to come forward until further information is announced.
The NHS says the best time to have the flu vaccine is in the autumn or early winter before flu starts spreading.
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