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Voters have swung to the Liberal Party after weeks of political dispute on border security, lifting the Coalition’s primary vote from 30 to 34 per cent while holding Labor’s support at its lowest point since the election.
The dramatic shift has also taken a toll on personal support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, whose net performance rating has sunk from minus 6 to minus 11 percentage points over the past month.
The exclusive findings take Opposition Leader Peter Dutton within sight of the Coalition’s result at the last election after voters threw more support behind him on national security and migration.
Asked to name the better leader and party to manage immigration and refugees, 33 per cent of voters backed Dutton and the Coalition while only 22 per cent named Albanese and Labor, reversing the government’s lead on the same question in October.
On national security and defence, 37 per cent of voters backed Dutton and the Coalition compared to 26 per cent who preferred Albanese and Labor, confirming the government’s challenges when it had a narrow lead on this measure as recently as July.
With households suffering from rising prices and higher interest rates, the shift in sentiment has also confirmed the lead for Dutton and the Coalition on economic management, with 35 per cent of voters backing them while 27 per cent preferred Albanese and Labor.
Albanese maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, with support from 42 per cent of voters compared to 28 per cent who favoured Dutton.
The gap between the two leaders has narrowed, however, from earlier this year when Albanese had 55 per cent support and Dutton had 23 per cent support. The proportion of undecided voters on this question has increased from 22 per cent in February to 30 per cent in December.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, found that core support for Labor was unchanged at 35 per cent over the past month.
While this is higher than the 32.6 per cent primary vote for Labor at the last election, it is down from 42 per cent following the May budget and confirms a slide in the government’s standing during the second half of this year.
The Liberal Party increased its primary vote from 26 to 31 per cent over the past month and the Nationals slipped from 4 to 3 per cent, resulting in an overall gain for the Coalition to 34 per cent.
Support for the Greens slipped from 13 to 12 per cent while support for independent candidates was steady at 9 per cent nationwide.
“The major parties are now neck-and-neck on primary vote, which is the culmination of a narrowing over the last six months as Labor is brought back down to earth,” said Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed.
“The Coalition have gained some vote share that was parked with minor parties and independents, which is a rarity for them.
“This was made up of people who had deserted Labor but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Dutton, but now they are moving across.”
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1,605 people during the period from November 29 to December 3, producing results with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent. This meant all changes in primary vote were within the margin of error except for the Liberal Party’s improvement.
Because the poll asked voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way as they filled in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election, there is no “undecided” category in the results, a key difference with some other surveys.
Asked how they rated Albanese, 37 per cent of people said his performance was good and 48 per cent said it was poor. His net result, which subtracts the “poor” from the “good” rating, deteriorated to minus 11 percentage points in December. It was positive for most of the year and above 25 percentage points before and after the May budget.
Asked about Dutton, 34 per cent of people said his performance was good and 42 per cent said it was poor. His net result deteriorated to minus 8 percentage points.
This is the first Resolve Political Monitor in which Albanese has a lower net performance rating than Dutton.
“Though Albanese retains a modest lead as the preferred prime minister, which incumbents usually do, his net performance rating is now below that of Dutton,” said Reed.
“It’s even lower than Morrison’s rated performance before he was voted out.
“Respondent comments single out the detention debacle, wavering on Israel, inaction on the cost of living, and being distracted from these things by travel and the Voice campaign.
“Voters are struggling to find something to compliment the government on at the moment.”
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