Warning: This story contains spoilers from “Connor’s Wedding,” the third episode of “Succession” Season 4, now streaming on HBO Max.
If you watched Sunday night’s dramatic third episode of this season’s “Succession,” you bore witness to the death of billionaire CEO Logan Roy, portrayed by two-time lead actor nominee and presumed 2023 Emmy contender Brian Cox. As a result, the burning question on awards pundits’ minds has turned toward a new type of uncertainty — where will Cox seek to campaign for his legendary portrayal as the head of media and entertainment conglomerate Waystar RoyCo?
Cox’s acclaimed performance has received multiple accolades for the HBO drama, including those two Emmy nominations for the second and third seasons for lead actor (drama). He was nominated alongside his co-star Jeremy Strong, who plays his eldest son Kendall, and who won for the show’s second season.
Emmy rules for 2023 state, “Only performers appearing in less than 50% of the eligible episodes can submit in the guest performer categories.” Assuming Cox doesn’t appear in any of the remaining episodes, the 76-year-old Scottish actor will have three options available to choose from. He can stay in lead actor (drama) with Strong, switch to supporting actor (drama) alongside Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen and Alan Ruck, or vie for guest actor (drama) recognition, facing likely contenders Arian Moayed and Alexander Skarsgård. If Cox appears in any of the two further episodes (in a flashback, for instance), he would no longer qualify for guest.
A decision on Cox is not the only question for the “Succession” troupe. Kieran Culkin, who plays the sarcastic, jokey Roman, and Sarah Snook as the political fixer daughter Shiv, are both considering switching to leading bids. Both have been previously nominated twice in their respective supporting categories, and have yet to win.
Sources also share many of the actors’ teams are waiting to see how the rest of the season plays out before making final decisions. This is due mainly to “Succession” creator Jesse Armstrong — known for being extremely cautious about leaks and spoilers — who has kept this season’s episodes under tight lock and key. A three-time winner for writing, the first solo scribe to win three times for the same series, Armstrong has shown very few creatives much of this season beyond this week’s fourth episode titled “Honeymoon States.”
Reportedly, episodes will be available to talent and publicists on the Wednesday before the Sunday episode debuts.
Seven episodes remain from this fourth and final season of the black dramedy, with the series finale scheduled to air on May 28, Memorial Day weekend. That raises the question: Will Armstrong allow the respective campaign teams to view the final three episodes before the May 9 Emmy submission deadline when all categories must be finalized?
Logan’s inevitable demise has been teased across the show’s multiple seasons, beginning with the pilot episode “Celebration” in June 2018, when Logan suffered a hemorrhagic stroke on his private plane. Since then, the fight for the company’s control amid the uncertainty about his health and his children’s growing thirst for power has been at the forefront.
Based on conversations, and merely speculative, if Cox is deemed ineligible for the guest acting race, we shouldn’t expect him to pivot to supporting to face off against last year’s winner Macfadyen and the still- unrecognized Ruck. In what would surely be a historic milestone for lead drama actors, Cox would likely have the shortest screen time of any actor ever, if he were nominated. He would, essentially, become the Emmy version of Anthony Hopkins (“The Silence of the Lambs”), who won the Oscar for only 21 minutes of screentime.
Culkin’s decision will likely rely upon Cox’s ultimate choice. If Cox did choose the guest route, he would probably win in a cakewalk.
For Snook, her team is likely looking at the lead actress drama slate of contenders that seems to have only one assured name (at the moment) — Melanie Lynskey for the second season of Showtime’s “Yellowjackets” — and seeing an opportunity to nab a deserved nom. You can argue Shiv has been a leading character throughout the series, especially compared to her co-star J. Smith Cameron, who will likely remain in the supporting race.
What makes the possible “Succession” category change-ups interesting is that it’s not the only series with supporting players considering leaping leading status.
Last year, Rhea Seehorn finally picked up her first career nom for playing Kim Wexler, Saul Goodman’s confidante in AMC’s “Better Call Saul.” Seehorn’s team is mulling over a decision on whether to seek lead actress consideration for the esteemed performer. This is potentially a savvy move that could pay off with the final season of the beloved cable series, especially with her co-star Bob Odenkirk, being a top pick in his category. In addition, her veteran and six-time Emmy-winning co-star Carol Burnett having to submit as a supporting actress removes the chances of vote-splitting.
“The White Lotus” swept the limited series races last year, including supporting actress for Jennifer Coolidge as the scene-stealing Tanya McQuoid. However, the second season, set in Sicily, has since moved to the drama categories after the TV Academy deemed it ineligible for the duplicate submission. Multiple sources share that Coolidge is also considering a move to lead after winning the Screen Actors Guild Award for female actor in a drama series.
Notably, SAG doesn’t hand out awards for supporting, and three of her four fellow nominees — Julia Garner, Laura Linney (“Ozark”) and Zendaya (“Euphoria”) — are not eligible this Emmy season, with only Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) competing, also in supporting.
Variety already exclusively reported Lynskey’s co-star Sophie Nélisse from “Yellowjackets,” who plays the teenage version of Lynskey’s Shauna, will join her to compete in the lead actress drama category.
Will these Hail Mary category plays pay off in the end? Only the race will tell.
Visit Variety Awards Circuit to read the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
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