What Afghanistan's win did to the World Cup odds | The Sun

DESPITE what everyone thought was a sure win, England lost the match against Afghanistan by 69 runs.

Harry Brook probably watched England participate in the ODI World at four years old and fostered a dream to play at one. An Afghanistan child born in the same year as Brook could not have that dream. In 2003, Afghanistan cricket was still in its infancy. The Afghanistan Cricket Board was formed in 1995, and it became an affiliate of the ICC in 2001. They then waited 12 more years before being granted associate membership.

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🏏 The underdogs come out on top

When you look at things in this context, Afghanistan’s win over England means a lot. Did I mention that this was Afghanistan’s second 50-over World Cup win in three appearances? Their first win was against Scotland in the 2015 edition, but were winless at the 2019 World Cup and just felled a giant in 2023.

It is a big thing for them to have beaten the defending champions and pre-tournament favourites. This is not just a win for Afghanistan. It’s bigger than that. It is also a warning to other higher-ranked nations that Afghanistan is not going to roll over and die in the face of much-vaunted lineups.

What happened to the odds?

Here's the situation with the bookies right now:

🏏 India – 6/5 with Betway

The tectonic plates did not just shift in narratives, they were also altered when you analyse how these teams are now ranked from most likely to win the tournament to the least likely. The hosts, India came into the tournament as red hot favourites with 2/1 odds in their favour. They have had a clean sweep of victories, shrugged aside Australia and trampled on Afghanistan before registering a dominant win against Pakistan. The hosts are now 6/5 favourites to win the whole thing.

🎫 Betway odds have India at 6/5 to win 🎫

🏏 South Africa – 11/2 with bet365

At the start of the tournament, South Africa had lowly odds of 10/1 and five spots down the ladder. Now, thanks to England’s misfortunes and their healthy run of form so far, they find themselves 11/2. This is an improvement from their previous odds of 10/1. They are still to play two teams in form India and New Zealand, and the defending champions England whom they have supplanted as the second-placed favourites.

🎫 bet365 odds have South Africa at at 11/2 🎫

🏏 New Zealand – 5/1 with Coral

Just below the South Africans are New Zealand. When the tournament took off, the Kiwis were six places down the ladder. The uncertainty of their talisman Kane Williamson being fit enough to play and the lack of two quality spinners had them on 12/1. Their Auckland pair of Devon Conway and Rachin Ravindra has shown that though Williamson is an integral part of their unit, they can manage just fine without him. Their odds have improved to 5/1. They still have dates with some of the stronger teams in the tournament.

🎫 Coral odds have New Zealand to win at 5/1 🎫

🏏 Australia – 6/1 with Betway

Australia has not had the kind of start they would have wanted. Their humbling at the hands of India and subsequent embarrassment by South Africa mean that they have fallen one spot down. They were 4/1 at the start of the 2023 World Cup, and now they are 11/2 after beating Sri Lanka. But, they are still yet to play all of the weaker sides, and if they can put their nightmares behind them, they are still a good shout for a semi-final berth.

🎫 Betway odds have Australia at 11/2 🎫

🏏 Pakistan – 12/1 with bet365

Pakistan have fallen two spots down. They were 8/1 when the tournament kicked off and despite the two wins and a single loss under their belt, their odds have deteriorated to 12/1. Their wins were against low-ranked Netherlands and Sri Lanka and were not as emphatic as their loss to India. The hosts needed a mere 30.3 overs to chase down the total Pakistan had put on the board.

🎫 bet365 odds have Pakistan at at 12/1 🎫

🏏 England – 8/1 with Unibet

Coming into the tournament, England would have imagined that their worst-case scenario after three games would be two wins and one loss. The loss to New Zealand is one they would have put on their list as the most probable and would have backed themselves to win against Afghanistan nine out of ten times. Recent history and tournament records supported that assumption. They did not expect to be the second UK country to be defeated by Afghanistan at a World Cup, it’s an honour one thought was reserved for Ireland in the future.

England still have to cross swords with India, Australia and Pakistan, all of whom pose a major threat to their chances of progressing from the group stages. This is why they have fallen from second to fifth. Coming into this tournament, they were pegged at 3/1 because of their high pedigree in players and status as defending champions. Now they find themselves at 9/1, lower than the odds Pakistan started with.

🎫 Unibet odds have England at at 8/1 🎫

Does Afghanistan have any chance?

Afghanistan has little to no hope of advancing from this stage of the tournament, however, by being David to England’s Goliath, they have opened the door for some countries that were considered as being on the fringes of qualifying for the knockout stages.

*Bookmakers’ odds are not always reliable but can give a guide.

More on the Cricket World Cup from Jarrod Kimber:

Cricket World Cup: Odds and boosts for England to win
Cricket World Cup: What are England's chances?
Cricket World Cup: Who will make the most runs for England?

About the author

Jarrod Kimber

With over 10 years of experience in the sports media industry, I am a passionate and versatile media entrepreneur and sports analyst. I also founded Good Areas, a network of podcasts, YouTube channels, and emailers that focus on how fans like sport, and that tell stories beyond the mainstream.

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What Afghanistan's win did to the World Cup odds | The Sun

🏏 The underdogs come out on top