What you need to know for Heat-Nuggets Game 5
The Denver Nuggets return home Monday evening with a chance to secure the franchise’s first NBA title. After sweeping the Miami Heat in South Florida, the Nuggets sit as sizable favorites for Game 5. Such a position makes sense given Denver is 9-1 straight up and 6-4 against the spread at home during this playoff run.
Miami relies on Bam Adebayo’s steady production in the paint. The versatile center offers nice value in DFS lineups and as a target for scoring and double-double props. Denver, meanwhile, has done well in slowing Jimmy Butler in clutch time during this series, but his scoring over is back in play in a must-win spot that should invite increased usage. My model digs Kyle Lowry as a complementary scorer and playmaker.
We know Nikola Jokic is the offensive engine for Denver, but Jamal Murray has also elevated his playmaking this postseason, averaging 7.1 dimes during the playoffs and while becoming the first player with at least 10 assists in each of his first four Finals games. Sticking with Murray in lineups and for offensive props is a reasonable plan for a game with such leverage.
Breaking down Heat-Nuggets Game 5
Injury Report:
Heat: Tyler Herro, (OUT – Hand); Victor Oladipo, (OUT – Knee)
Nuggets: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Nuggets (-9). Denver is on the brink of their first NBA championship. A win on Monday would make them just the ninth team to lose only one game in the semifinals and Finals in a single postseason. Denver’s defense has been a thorn in the side for the Heat. This is surprising considering the Nuggets ranked 15th in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but have flipped the script in the postseason. All three of the Heat’s losses in the Finals have been by 10 or more points. Miami is 0-6 against the spread in their six games following a home loss of 10 or more points. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic have helped the Nuggets go 5-1 against the spread in their past six games. The duo has averaged a combined 56.8 PPG this postseason. Only Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant would had a higher postseason PPG average. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Jamal Murray over 33.5 points + assists. The Heat have had no answer for Murray in this series. He became the first player in NBA history to have 10-plus assists in four NBA Finals games. Murray has also averaged an impressive 23.3 PPG as well. Michael Malone won’t let his team get complacent, ensuring they stay hungry heading into Game 5. Expect Jokic and Murray to stay aggressive on Monday night. — Moody
Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 14.5 rebounds + assists. Miami has their backs against the wall, and you know Playoff Jimmy is likely to show up in Game 5. Adebayo’s role as a facilitator and rebounder becomes even more crucial. The Heat need their perimeter shots to fall if they want to compete on Monday night. Don’t overlook Adebayo, who has been a force with his impressive average of 16.3 rebounds + assists in the Finals. — Moody
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