What you need to know for Wednesday
After losing last night, the Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves await the winners of tonight’s Play-In matchups to determine the final seed in each conference. My somewhat simple DFS model adores two centers this evening, as Nikola Vucevic and Jonas Valanciunas project for right around 40 DraftKings points in their respective games. With everything on the line tonight, these two bankable bigs stand out from Wednesday’s player pool.
Valanciunas paces the Pelicans with 21.4 rebounding chances during the team’s last 10 games, more than double the closest teammate. Such a clip leads to a good shot at surpassing rebounding and double-double props against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that sits 25th in rebounding percentage on the season.
Vucevic is also poised to produce against a Toronto team that he averaged 18.7 points and 10 boards against in three meetings this season. With reasonable odds on delivering a double-double this evening, Vucevic is another pivot worth playing in prop markets. Teammate Zach LaVine’s assist prop of 4.5 dimes on DraftKings is also appealing given he’s hit this mark in 11 of his past 14 outings.
— Jim McCormick
Breaking down Wednesday’s Play In games
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
7 p.m. ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Records (Against the Spread)
Bulls: 40-42 (43-39-0)
Raptors: 41-41 (41-39-2)
Line: Raptors (-5.5) Total: 212.5
Money Line: Bulls (+185), Raptors (-225)
BPI Projection: Raptors by 2.3
Injury Report:
Bulls: Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee)
Raptors: Otto Porter Jr., (OUT – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Pascal Siakam over 36.5 points + assists + rebounds. Siakam has been the Raptors’ top scorer and has an impressive usage rate of 28.3%. He’s averaged 24.0 PPG, 5.4 APG and 8.6 RPG over his past 10 games. I’d be shocked if Siakam doesn’t deliver an epic performance for the Raptors in Wednesday night’s elimination game. Toronto has a distinct size advantage over a Bulls team that plays a lot with four guards and this is something they should exploit in this matchup. Chicago gives up the fifth most rebounds per game to power forwards. Siakam has played well at home this season and should play ample minutes in Wednesday night’s game. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Zach LaVine over 25.5 points. If the Raptors are going to hold DeRozan to modest scoring tonight, someone is going to have to score for the Bulls and the obvious answer to who that will be is LaVine. He scored 30 points against them early in the season and then had 17 points in his other meeting in late February. LaVine averaged 28.4 points per game in March and everything is going to be on the line for the Bulls tonight. And I think LaVine is going to have to score 30 for them to win. — Steve Alexander
Best bet: DeMar DeRozan under 27.5 points + assists. I’m not buying the DeRozan revenge narrative in this matchup. In three games against the Raptors this season, he didn’t play well. DeRozan averaged 14.0 points and 3.7 assists against the Bulls. During his career, he hasn’t played well in the playoffs. Raptors head coach Nick Nurse and O.G. Anunoby are familiar with DeRozan’s game. As a rookie Anunoby studied DeRozan closely during his rookie season and should have success defending his friend, mentor and former teammate. — Moody
Best bet: Fred VanVleet over 17.5 points. VanVleet hit just 5-of-25 shots over his last two regular-season games at Boston but the Raptors are playing the Bulls, who give up more than 23 points per game to opposing shooting guards. VanVleet averaged nearly 21 points per game in March and shot it well on most nights, unlike those two games against Boston. He scored 30 and 27 points against the Bulls in their November meetings but had a dreadful 1-of-11 shooting performance for three points in a Feb. 28 win against Chicago. I’m looking for VanVleet to get back on track across the board tonight and it shouldn’t be difficult for him to score 20 points if his shot is falling. — Alexander
Best bet: Nikola Vucevic over 27.5 points + rebounds. Vuc averaged 18.7 points and 10 rebounds in three games against the Raptors this season and had just five boards against them on Feb. 28. Vuc averaged 20 points and 10.3 rebounds in his last three meaningful games of the regular season and he’s going to need to step up tonight with the Raptors focused on shutting down DeRozan again. If Vuc is active and involved he should be able to use his experience and size to be effective against Jakob Poeltl and company and I’m guessing he gets loose for a big game. — Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans
9:30 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 40-42 (47-34-1)
Pelicans: 42-40 (39-41-2)
Line: Pelicans (-5.5) Total: 226.5
Money Line: Thunder (+185), Pelicans (-225)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 3.5
Injury Report:
Thunder: Aleksej Pokusevski, (OUT – Knee); Chet Holmgren, (OUT – Foot); Kenrich Williams, (OUT – Wrist)
Pelicans: Larry Nance Jr., (GTD – Ankle); Zion Williamson, (OUT – Hamstring); Jose Alvarado, (OUT – Leg); E.J. Liddell, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Trey Murphy III over 23.5 points + rebounds. As the regular season came to a close, Murphy III averaged 22.0 points and 2.6 rebounds over the last 10 games. The Thunder want a fast-paced game. They’re third in pace and force the most turnovers in the league. Murphy III is peaking at the right time for the Thunder. Only two players in the league this season shot 60% on twos, 40% on threes, and 90% on free throws: Kevin Durant and Murphy III. It’s the kind of matchup the second-year player can thrive in. — Moody
Best bet: Under 228.0. The Pelicans have a strong defense. New Orleans ranks 10th in net rating. The only teams with a better defense than the Pelicans are the Cavaliers, Celtics, Grizzlies, Bucks and Bulls. New Orleans have the personnel to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The total has hit the under in 10 of the Pelicans last 13 games. Similar trend for the Thunder, where the total has gone under in six of their last nine games. The total has also been under in the each of the last five games these two teams have played against each other. — Moody
Best bet: Jonas Valanciunas over 25.5 points + rebounds. Valanciunas has the talent to dominate Thunder’s interior defense. Oklahoma City doesn’t have a true center and gives up the fourth most rebounds per game to the position. Jaylin Williams will have a hard time stopping Valanciunas on Wednesday night. Over the last 15 games, Valanciunas has averaged 14.3 points and 12.8 rebounds. There’s a strong chance he’ll surpass those per-game averages. — Moody
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 43.5 points + rebounds + assists. This is the moment SGA has been waiting for all season and he’s going to be the guy in the spotlight for the Thunder. He averaged 45.8 P+R+A against the Pelicans in four games this season and should be fully rested and ready to show off all his skills in this one. He averaged 42.9 P+R+A in the month of March and should be ready to put the Thunder on his back in this game. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t go off tonight — Alexander
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