What you need to know for Saturday
The field is set for a four-game Saturday playoff slate, which tips off with early-afternoon action in South Philly in a game that features the lowest total of the day and concludes in California with a contest between the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings and a robust total of 237 points.
We’re not suggesting you fade the contest between the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets, but rather we want to recognize that the Warriors-Kings game has friendly fantasy ingredients when it comes to pace and production. Look at this late game when building lineups with Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Kevon Looney — and even this Stephen Curry guy.
My model actually likes some plays in the 76ers contest, such as building around Joel Embiid in DFS lineups during a day where he’s projected to outscore the field by 10 fantasy points. An underrated angle might be Royce O’Neale’s playmaking ability. He has dished at least three dimes in six straight games, yet his passing prop sits at an achievable 2.5 on most books.
Digging into the other two games today, Al Horford and his newfound shooting volume and success combine for the best DFS profile in the game against the Atlanta Hawks. Horford’s shooting prop sits at 2.5 3-pointers at plus odds, even as he has hit this threshold in six of his last 10 outings.
— Jim McCormick
Breaking down Saturday’s games
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
1 p.m ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Records (against the spread)
Nets: 45-37 (43-39-0)
76ers: 54-28 (46-35-1)
Line: 76ers (-8.5) Total: 214.5
BPI Projection: 76ers by 9.9
Money Line: Nets (+285), 76ers (-365)
Injury Report:
Nets: Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back)
76ers: Georges Niang, (GTD – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Cameron Johnson over 19.5 points+rebounds. Johnson suffered a right knee injury during the Nets’ regular-season finale, but he will return Saturday. During his last eight games, he has averaged 18.1 points and 4.9 rebounds. Johnson has a favorable matchup against the 76ers’ defense, so don’t ignore him. — Eric Moody
Best bet: James Harden over 30.5 points+assists. While Harden was dealing with left Achilles soreness toward the end of the regular season, he should be well-rested going into Game 1. The 76ers are confident he will be ready to play. Harden averaged 21.0 points and led the league in assists per game with 10.7. Harden has the edge over Spencer Dinwiddie in this series. — Moody
Best bet: Over 214.5. Even though defense is prioritized in the playoffs this total caught my eye as being extremely low. The 76ers will be on their home floor, have a significant advantage with center Joel Embiid and will want to set the tone for this series early. During the last 15 games of the regular season, both teams averaged a combined 227 points per game. — Moody
Trend: The last time these teams met was just before the All-Star break in a contest that largely saw Brooklyn outplay Philadelphia, only to still lose after a lopsided final quarter. There was some evidence in that game that Brooklyn’s collective of wings and sharpshooters could give 76ers defenders trouble on the perimeter, which could indicate a closer contest than this current spread suggests. — McCormick
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
3:30 p.m ET, TD Garden, Boston
Records (against the spread)
Hawks: 41-41 (36-44-2)
Celtics: 57-25 (45-36-1)
Line: Celtics (-9) Total: 230.5
BPI Projection: Celtics by 10.5
Money Line: Hawks (+328), Celtics (-430)
Injury Report:
Hawks: None reported
Celtics: Danilo Gallinari, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Trae Young over 33.5 points+assists. Young will have to play well if the Hawks want to win this series since they are atrocious defensively. Over Young’s past six games against the Celtics, he has averaged 27.0 points and 9.0 assists. While Boston is a formidable opponent, Young and the Hawks have beaten No. 1 seeds before. There is no doubt that the young point guard can deliver on the big stage. — Moody
Best bet: Onyeka Okongwu over 14.5 points+rebounds. Okongwu’s athleticism might make him more effective than Clint Capela in this series. While the Celtics have a good defense, they have struggled to contain centers. Boston has given up the 12th-most points per game since the All-Star break. During that time frame, Okongwu has averaged 11.3 points and 7.0 rebounds. — Moody
Trend: Boston was relatively dominant against Atlanta this season, sweeping its three matchups both outright and against the spread. The average margin topped 13 points and, when considering Boston’s depth of defensive guards to counter Atlanta’s star-driven backcourt, today’s sizable spread appears more reasonable. — McCormick
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
6 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (against the spread)
Knicks: 47-35 (45-35-2)
Cavaliers: 51-31 (42-37-3)
Line: Cavaliers (-5) Total: 217
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 13.1
Money Line: Knicks (+162), Cavaliers (-195)
Injury Report:
Knicks: Julius Randle, (GTD – Ankle)
Cavaliers: Isaac Okoro, (GTD – Knee); Dylan Windler, (OUT – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 33.5 points+assists+rebounds. Brunson was signed by the Knicks during the offseason after having a huge impact for the Mavericks in last year’s playoffs. The Knicks should rely heavily on Brunson during this series, especially since Randle has an ankle injury. Since the All-Star break, Brunson has averaged 24.3 points, 6.2 assists and 3.2 rebounds. He will have to be on his game for the Knicks to defeat the Cavaliers in this series. Brunson averaged 37.5 points and 8.5 assists in two games without Randle this season. — Moody
Best bet: Donovan Mitchell over 29.5 points. Mitchell has a wealth of playoff experience (40 games) and should lead the way for the Cavaliers in Game 1. For his career in the playoffs, he has scored 30-plus points 19 times. Mitchell has averaged 31.8 points while shooting 50.6% from the floor in four games against the Knicks this season. — Moody
Best bet: Knicks +5.0. The Knicks are going to keep this game close regardless of Randle’s status. New York is 9-4 against the spread in its past 13 games against the Cavaliers. They’ve also played well on the road this season. In these games, the Knicks are 36-15-1 against the spread. — Moody
Trend: The Knicks have been one of the league’s best offensive rebounding teams in the league and outworked Cleveland in this area in three of four meetings this season. If this continues, it could help keep this contest close via added possessions for the visiting Knicks. — McCormick
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
8:30 p.m ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Records (against the spread)
Warriors: 44-38 (39-42-1)
Kings: 48-34 (45-37-0)
Line: Kings (-1) Total: 237
BPI Projection: Kings by 1.2
Money Line: Warriors (-115), Kings (-105)
Injury Report:
Warriors: Ty Jerome, (GTD – Illness); Andre Iguodala, (OUT – Wrist); Ryan Rollins, (OUT – Foot)
Kings: Davion Mitchell, (GTD – Knee); Harrison Barnes, (GTD – Ankle); Matthew Dellavedova, (OUT – Finger)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Stephen Curry over 35.5 points+assists. Curry has played in 134 playoff games during his 14-year career. Last postseason, he averaged 27.4 points and 5.9 assists. The Kings are not a strong defensive team, ranking 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions during the regular season. The Kings also allowed opponents to have an effective field goal percentage of 56.7%, the fourth-highest rate in the league. — Moody
Best bet: Warriors (-115). The Warriors are on the road, but Sacramento is only 1½ hours away. The Warriors’ offense is one of the most impressive in the league. Golden State finished the regular season ranked eighth in points scored per 100 possessions. The Warriors also have an effective field goal percentage of 57.4%, third-highest in the league. Golden State has won four championships over eight seasons. It is 21-3 in series openers during that timeframe. Although this is a much improved Kings team, the Warriors still seem to have the upper hand. — Moody
Trend: Sacramento is not only returning to the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, but did so by setting the all-time record for offensive rating. While the over is in play tonight between two offensive juggernauts, the loudest angle might just be the Warriors’ notorious road woes. Golden State sits just 12-28-1 against the spread on the road. Tonight will be a massive test for the Warriors’ ability to counter this season-long trend. — McCormick
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Boston Celtics (83.6%)
2. Philadelphia 76ers (83.2%)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (61.1%)
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