ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN’s proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Sunday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Sunday’s games
We are nearing the end of the first round of the playoffs. The 76ers have already punched their ticket to the second round, and on Sunday the Nuggets have the opportunity to do the same if they can win one more in Minnesota. This is the last day this season when there will be four NBA games played, making it a particularly intriguing betting/DFS opportunity.
There is also a full gambit of styles in these series. The Knicks and Cavs are coming off one of the lowest scoring games this season with only 178 combined points scored, and they have yet to combine for 200 points in any of the first three games. Meanwhile, the Kings and Warriors are at the other end of the spectrum with an average of 226.7 combined PPG and a 249-point game already in the records. There is more action scheduled today than you’ll see again this NBA season, so let’s dig into it and find some opportunities.
— Andre Snellings
Breaking down the slate
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks
Game 3: 1 p.m. ET, Knicks lead series 2-1
Records (Against the Spread)
Cavaliers: 51-31 (42-37-3)
Knicks: 47-35 (45-35-2)
Line: Knicks (-2.5) Total: 206.5
BPI Projection: Knicks by 1.6
Money Line: Cavaliers (+115), Knicks (-135)
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Dylan Windler, (OUT – Foot)
Knicks: Quentin Grimes, (GTD – Shoulder); Jericho Sims, (OUT – Shoulder)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Under 206.5 points. This series has been a throwback to the defenses days of yore. The Cavaliers are built around their strong defensive frontline, while the Knicks know they have to slow down the game and make it physical to have a chance to defeat the more apparently talented Cavaliers. The result has been an old school, defensive-oriented Eastern Conference clash that has averaged a combined 191 PPG. They have not combined to score more than 198 points in any game in the series, and that was in Game 1. The score has gone down in every game since. — Snellings
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 22.5 points. While Julius Randle has been gamely gutting it out on the court, he obviously is still dealing with the ankle injury that caused him to miss the end of the regular season. He has averaged only 17.3 PPG on 32.7 FG% this series. Thus, the Knicks are relying more heavily on Brunson to carry the offense than they’ve had to all season. While the games are consistently low scoring, Brunson has scored at least 20 points in all three games and is averaging 22.7 PPG for the series. I look for Brunson to be more aggressive early in Game 4 than he was in the first half of Game 3, because I anticipate the Cavaliers coming out aggressive and the Knicks needing Brunson to steady the ship as they try to take a commanding 3-1 lead. — Snellings
Best bet: Julius Randle under 23.5 points. As mentioned above, Randle has been struggling to score this series. Between the Cavaliers’ long, defensively excellent frontline and Randle’s seemingly lingering ankle issues, he has made only 32.7 percent of his field goals and averaged only 17.3 PPG this series. He has yet to score more than 22 points in any game, and has scored 19 or less in two games. With only one day between Games 3 and 4, I’m not expecting Randle to suddenly burst out and put on an explosive scoring display on Sunday. — Snellings
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
Game 4: 3:30 p.m. ET, Kings series 2-1
Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 48-34 (45-37-0)
Warriors: 44-38 (39-42-1)
Line: Warriors (-7.5) Total: 237
BPI Projection: Warriors by 2.7
Money Line: Kings (+275), Warriors (-350)
Injury Report:
Kings: Matthew Dellavedova, (OUT – Finger)
Warriors: Gary Payton II, (GTD – Illness); Jordan Poole, (GTD – Ankle); Andre Iguodala, (OUT – Wrist); Ryan Rollins, (OUT – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Kings team total over 114.5 The Kings hit over this mark in first two games at home, but only put up 97 points in game three at the Chase Center. The Warriors defense is better at home, but the Kings are actually good on the road. They just had an off night in terms of shooting, going 38% from the field and 23% from three. I expect a better shooting performance in this one for the Kings.— Dolan
Best bet: Kings +7.5 points. The Warriors blew the Kings out in Game 3, but that was the only time that has happened in six meetings this season where both teams played their starters. In the other five meetings, including the playoffs, the Kings have won 3-of-5 with the Warriors’ other two full-strength wins coming by three and five points. The Warriors exploded with their backs against the wall in Game 3, playing a more offense-minded style with Draymond Green out and Andrew Wiggins moved to the four. In Game 4, with Green back, I expect the Warriors to lean more into their defense and for both teams to buckle down in a pivotal playoffs game. I expect the game to be tightly contested, and even if the Warriors pull it out, 7.5 is too many points for them to give with the way this season series has gone. — Snellings
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
Game 3: 7 p.m. ET, Celtics series 2-1
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 57-25 (45-36-1)
Hawks: 41-41 (36-44-2)
Line: Celtics (-6.5) Total: 232
BPI Projection: Celtics by 6.6
Money Line: Celtics (-250), Hawks (+205)
Injury Report:
Celtics: Marcus Smart, (GTD – Back); Danilo Gallinari, (OUT – Knee)
Hawks: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Celtics 1H (-1.5) I think Boston will jump out on Atlanta after losing Game 3. Boston covered this number in all three games of this series. The Celtics should come out motivated and make adjustments to limit Trae Young like they did in the first two games. — Erin Dolan
Best bet: Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points. Brown is coming off two straight down games, but in Game 3 he dealt with foul trouble the entire game and never got into rhythm. And the Celtics lost. I expect Brown to come out aggressive for Game 4, more similar to his form from Game 1 when he took 23 shots on his way to 29 points. Brown has not scored under 26 points in three straight games at any point this season, and I don’t expect him to start now. Look for a strong bounce back in Game 4. — Snellings
Best bet: Trae Young over 25.5 points. The Celtics held Young in Check in the first two games of the series, both in Boston, to the tune of 20.0 PPG on 35.0 FG%. Young bounced back in a big way for 32 points on 54.5 FG% in Game 3, back in Atlanta, but that’s how he’s played against the Celtics in Atlanta all season. In three home games against the Celtics, including Game 3, Young has averaged 31.3 PPG with at least 27 points scored in all three games. — Snellings
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Game 4: 9:30 p.m. ET, Nuggets series 3-0
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1)
Timberwolves: 42-40 (40-42-0)
Line: Nuggets (-3.5) Total: 225
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 7.2
Money Line: Nuggets (-165), Timberwolves (+140)
Injury Report:
Nuggets: None reported
Timberwolves: Jaylen Nowell, (GTD – Knee); Josh Minott, (GTD – Ankle); Jaden McDaniels, (OUT – Hand); Naz Reid, (OUT – Wrist)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Jamal Murray over 22.5 points. Murray only scored 18 points in Game 3, but that was an unusual game for him. In his previous three games against the Timberwolves, including the playoffs, Murray had averaged 30.7 PPG with at least 24 points in every game. Similarly, In his last 22 playoffs games, Murray has averaged almost 27 PPG. He is a primary scorer for the Nuggets in the postseason, and I expect him to come out aggressive on Sunday as the Nuggets try to end this series.– Snellings
Best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns over 21.5 points. Towns has a history of lower-scoring games earlier in playoffs series before putting bigger numbers on the board later in the series. In his first playoffs in 2018, Towns scored only 13 combined points in Games 1 and 2, but was up to 45 combines over Games 4 and 5. In his second playoffs, last season, Towns combined for only 23 points in Games 2 and 3, but popped for 61 total in Games 4 and 5. In this, his third playoffs appearance, Towns again only managed 21 combined points in Games 1 and 2 but exploded for 27 points in Game 3. If he continues his pattern, he should put a big number on the board in Game 4, against a a Nuggets team that he traditionally produces against (didn’t play against them this regular season, but averaged 25.5 PPG in four games against them in 2021-22). — Snellings
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