- ESPN Sports Betting Analyst
- Host of Daily Wager
- Behind The Bets podcast host
Bettors do not seem to care whether the nation’s top-ranked team will have its starting quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner for Saturday’s game.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide star Bryce Young is a game-time decision with a shoulder injury, as Bama (-24) hosts Texas A&M, which has already ruled out its own starting QB, Max Johnson. This SEC tilt is expected to rank among the college games with the most money wagered on it, and the Tide are drawing around 85% of the action.
“The public just believes in Alabama regardless [of Young’s status]. As Metallica said, it’s sad but true,” Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN. “When you bet Bama blind, you are always a runner [and have a good chance].”
Mucklow is just one member of his trading team that thoroughly tracks injuries, and that’s consistent with all operators. Collectively, sportsbooks opt to postgame lines throughout the week rather than wait for a key player’s official status. “Why not? We know just as much as the bettors at this time. Our team just reads between the lines and makes a judgment call,” Mucklow said.
Alabama isn’t the only school with QB uncertainty this weekend. Both Oklahoma and Texas began their rivalry week without knowledge of who will start. On Thursday, Quinn Ewers received clearance for the Longhorns but the Sooners have not yet announced the official status of Dillon Gabriel.
No. 13 Kentucky’s Will Levis is listed as questionable with a leg injury, as the Wildcats are favored by six points at home against South Carolina. This point spread opened at 10 but crashed on Wednesday, once injury news surfaced and ignited a race to the betting window.
“Twitter has really become the best way to get information,” professional bettor Chuck Edel told ESPN, as he was able to bet +10 on South Carolina. “I share info with a few guys because three heads are better than one. I got lucky, but it doesn’t always work out like that.”
Grabbing a good number is the initial objective, but one must then make a decision once the market settles. Do you let it ride on that good number, or do you wager on the other team and protect your position? Ultimately, it often comes down to how you assess the backup quarterback.
“The NFL has a bigger drop-off [from the starting QB]. Sometimes in college it’s not that big of one. We make such a big deal of it, but it may not be such a bad thing,” Edel said, pointing to recent covers by Utah State and Tulane while starting a backup QB.
However, Edel does see a significant downgrade for Bama. He is looking to back Texas A&M, if the point spread increases to about 27, if Young is ruled out and freshman Jalen Milroe starts. “He just didn’t look like he saw the field that well last week [against Arkansas],” Edel said. “He was having trouble keeping up with the game. But obviously a week of practice could make things different.”
Edel said he’s also monitoring the status of Tulane’s Michael Pratt and Troy’s Gunnar Watson. Watson left last week’s game, while Pratt missed last week’s win.
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Favorite picks
Texas Longhorns (-8.5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Rivalry games typically invite underdog wagers, but I have to ride with the Longhorns. Oklahoma has significant defensive issues with injuries mounting on both sides of the ball, including Gabriel, who is unlikely to play. The Sooners are 0-2 in conference play, allowing a combined 96 points in those losses. I don’t see how they can slow down a UT team that ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and will return starting QB Ewers from injury. Steve Sarkisian should have a field day.
Pick: Texas -8.5
No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-22.5, 49.5) at Indiana Hoosiers
The Wolverines dominated their first three opponents, but that trio ranks among the worst in all FBS. Things definitely changed once conference play started. Maryland was able to move the ball against the Wolverines and finished with 27 points. I think the Hoosiers will accomplish some things on offense, especially if the players’ focus is on next week’s home game against No. 10 Penn State. Also, Michigan ranks eighth in offensive efficiency and should be able to hang whatever number it wants. I did want to grab the underdog and the points, but I felt I needed closer to 27 points. So I will play the total.
Pick: Over 49.5
No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-13, 70.5) at Arizona Wildcats
Similar to Michigan, the Ducks face an inferior opponent on the road with a tough conference home game next weekend (No. 18 UCLA). I believe the Wildcats, thanks to an emerging offense, can score enough to keep this game interesting. Meanwhile, Oregon has been extremely sharp with its offensive execution and ranks eighth in efficiency. The Ducks are averaging over 50 points per game since the opener against Georgia. Meanwhile, they only rank 65th in defensive efficiency. Wildcats QB Jayden de Laura has thrown for at least 400 yards in back-to-back games and will present plenty of problems for Oregon.
Pick: Over 70.5
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