ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN’s proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Wednesday, March 29 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Wednesday’s games
On a night that includes Kevin Durant’s anticipated home debut and a matchup of the top two scorers in the league, fantasy managers are likely more intrigued by the rosters of the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons.
For Detroit, rookie Jalen Duren is back to getting big minutes. In his past two games with at least 27 minutes of run, he’s averaged 16.5 points and 11.5 boards and is expected to play a large role again tonight. Killian Hayes is another Pistons player of interest given he’s 10th in the NBA in assists per game (8.0) over the past 10 games and is projected to cruise past 30 minutes in tonight’s game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Not only does Zach Collins have nice hair, but the guy is also enjoying a career-best stretch thanks to the Spurs affording him plenty of minutes and unfettered freedom on offense. Collins has exceeded value in five of his past six games in regard to DFS production and is a free agent in roughly 82% of ESPN leagues for tonight’s matchup versus Kelly Olynyk and the Utah Jazz. Olynyk, meanwhile, has 17 dimes across his past two games and is a savvy play and target for passing props against a team ranked 30th in defensive rating.
While superstar-driven angles such as Durant’s return or a scoring-fest in South Philly are undoubtedly riveting, the league-wide culmination of injuries, load management, and the pursuit of lottery odds compels us to focus on widely available waiver wire stars that can carry teams to fantasy titles.
Breaking down Tuesday’s slate
Best bet: Malaki Branham over 14.5 points. Branham has scored 15 points in each of his last two games, the Jazz are the sixth-worst team against opposing shooting guards and the Spurs will be without Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell tonight. Someone is going to have to score for this team and odd are it will be Branham and Zach Collins carrying the load. Obviously, Branham also makes for a solid streaming choice, rostered in just 1.7% of ESPN leagues. — Alexander
Best bet: Zach Collins over 16.5 points. Collins had 21 points and seven boards against the Celtics on Sunday and has hit the scoring over in five of his last six games. As I mentioned above, the Spurs are going to be without several of its offensive stars and they’ll need Collins to score tonight. — Alexander
Best bet: Walker Kessler over 13.5 points. Kessler is averaging 24.5 points over his last two games and the Spurs are the second-worst team in the league at stopping opposing centers. Kessler had two solid games against the Spurs at the end of February and while he didn’t score more than 10 points in either of them, he’s playing at a different level right now. And if Lauri Markkanen sits with his hand injury tonight, Kessler’s chances for a big scoring night will improve dramatically. — Alexander
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 45-30 (41-34-0)
Blazers: 32-43 (35-39-1)
Line: Kings (-14)
BPI Projection: Kings (144.5-130)
Money Line: Kings (-1100), Blazers (+700)
BPI Projected winner: Kings (90%)
Total: 235.5 points BPI Projected Total: 274.5 points
Injury Report:
Kings: None reported
Blazers: Cam Reddish, (GTD – Back); Trendon Watford, (GTD – Ankle); Anfernee Simons, (OUT – Foot); Jerami Grant, (OUT – Quadriceps); Jusuf Nurkic, (OUT – Knee); Justise Winslow, (OUT – Ankle); Damian Lillard, (OUT – Calf)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Fantasy streamer: Shaedon Sharpe (rostered in 16.4% of ESPN leagues) had scored at least 24 points in three straight games before scoring 12 points with eight rebounds against the Pelicans on Monday. Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant are likely done for the year and Sharpe has a real chance to be a silly-season hero over the last two weeks of the season. The Kings aren’t good against opposing shooting guards, giving up 24.38 points to them, good for eighth-worst in the league. Sharpe was cruising before Monday’s decent game and I expect him to get back on track tonight. — Alexander
Best bet: Domantas Sabonis over 19.5 points. Jusuf Nurkic is out for the Blazers and even with him they’re the worst team in the entire league against opposing centers, giving up 25.41 points to them on a nightly basis. Sabonis has scored at least 24 points in two of his last three games and given how bad the Blazers are right now without Nurkic, Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant, he should go off tonight. –Alexander
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
10 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 39-37 (37-39-0)
Suns: 40-35 (38-35-2)
Line: Suns (-5)
BPI Projection: Suns (132.8-127.6)
Money Line: Timberwolves (+170), Suns (-205)
BPI Projected winner: Suns (66.3%)
Total: 236 points BPI Projected Total: 260 points
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, (GTD – Calf); Jaylen Nowell, (GTD – Knee); Karl-Anthony Towns, (GTD – Calf); Taurean Prince, (GTD – Illness)
Suns: Duane Washington Jr., (OUT – Hip); Kevin Durant, (GTD – Ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
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