WHILE all teams’ records may start the season even, it won’t last that way for long.
With lines moving up and down all the time, it seems about right to skewer the over/unders of a few franchises for some potential profit.
Here are four teams to look out for in particular…
All odds courtesy of Paddy Power
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Kansas City Chiefs – O/U 10.5 Wins
Let’s get my statement pick out of the way first. While the Chiefs no doubt will be there or thereabouts in the AFC West come January, it’s not going to be the cakewalk it has been previously. The Chargers (x2) and the Raiders have knocked them off in the last two years, and we know that the Broncos will be a completely different threat this season with the addition of Russell Wilson.
Tyreek Hill is no longer at Arrowhead, so Patrick Mahomes can no longer rely on the insanely fast WR for a safety valve. The running game is completely average (16th in yards last year) and I don’t see new acquisition Ronald Jones improving that much.
Outside of their division they have to face the Bills, Bucs and the entire NFC West. There’s just so many tricky ties that I can’t take the over here. 10 wins is feasible, but 11 or more seems a push for a team that has gotten weaker, not stronger.
Prediction: Under 10.5 (10/11) – add to your betslip here
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Washington Commanders – O/U 8.5 Wins
Carson Wentz can or cannot be blamed for the Colts missing out on the playoffs last season (for the record, I say you absolutely can), but one thing is for certain: Washington are putting a lot of eggs in one basket in that the 29 year old still has gas.
He improved on his final year stats at the Eagles over 2021, but the ability to snatch a boneheaded play out of thin air covered a cloud over the franchise. You only had to see the final must-win game against the Jags for that.
Ron Rivera may also be on the hotseat and with the Head Coach not being able to call on star DE Chase Young for a while, there may not be enough talent to compete here, even in a dodgy NFC East.
Nine wins feels a lot for a team seemingly treading water and with the Niners, Packers and Deshaun Watson-led Browns on the horizon out of division, the under feels a safe bet.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (8/15) – add to your betslip here
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Jacksonville Jaguars – O/U 6.5 Wins
It’s been one of the longest tunnels of misery for any North American sports franchise (aside from Blake Bortles’ 2018 charge to the AFC Championship game) but the Jags may finally be seeing light at the end of the tunnel.
With the ‘hands-on’ (in EVERY sense of the word) approach of Urban Meyer spectacularly failing, Doug Pedersen returns to a Head Coaching role, looking to right the ship. And he actually has a fair bit of talent at his disposal.
QB Trevor Lawrence should benefit from a man who steered the-then backup Nick Foles to the Super Bowl. RBs James Robinson and Travis Etienne (finally injury free after losing his entire rookie year) is a formidable 1-2 punch. #1 Draft pick Travon Walker has already shown flashes on the defense; while Christian Kirk, Jamal Agnew and Laviska Shenault are a tidy bunch of wide outs.
The Texans provide two great opportunities to get on the board, plus the Giants, Jets, Lions and Commanders are all winnable on paper. It seems quite a leap to go from three wins to seven plus, but there’s enough to suggest it’s within reach for the Duval County team.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (11/10) – add to your betslip here
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Pittsburgh Steelers – O/U 7.5 Wins
Let’s get the well-trodden stat out the way first: Mike Tomlin has NEVER had a losing season with the Steelers in 15 years. It might well be his hardest mission yet to keep that run alive, but all is not lost in Pennsylvania.
Najee Harris, T.J Watt and Chase Claypool are all still contracted. Pat Freiermuth could well push himself into the upper echelons of Tight Ends. Chris Boswell is still as reliable as ever for a kicker.
The QB play could be up in the air until we know who is starting on the opening weekend. But each of Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph have played good football in the offseason. Remember, Trubisky is a former division winner and playoff starter.
Games against the Falcons, Panthers and Jets out of division should hold no fear. The Browns will be without Deshaun Watson in their Week 3 matchup and is definitely winnable. This team might surprise a few people and even if Tomlin loses his amazing record, eight wins would still land the bet. Take the over.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (10/11) – add to your betslip here
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