- ESPN Sports Betting Analyst
- Host of Daily Wager
- Behind The Bets podcast host
What were you doing in the summer of 2015?
The Golden State Warriors had just won their first of three NBA titles in a four-year span, the Seattle Seahawks were still lamenting over Malcolm Butler’s Super Bowl interception and the Kansas City Royals were gearing up for their World Series title.
That is when John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens last lost a preseason game. Their inexplicable win streak reached 23 games Saturday, thanks to a defensive stand against Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders. Yes, there were no-names roaming around, but their ability to keep churning out victories does say something. No one has put a finger on what it says exactly, but we do know it does resonate — especially with bettors. Baltimore’s 17-15 victory dropped its ATS run to 20-3, but it’s still another win.
Here are my three biggest takeaways from the final preseason weekend:
1. The Houston Texans are going to be a problem — no cap. They’re not the Buffalo Bills, but they are going to be a force. Lovie Smith has this team flying around on defense, and quarterback Davis Mills is legit. Houston won only four games last year, but I am confident that number increases. It will be an old-school style of football, but they look connected and intentional, and that means something. Take a step back and remember the NFL is a league of parity, and all teams can win on any given Sunday. The Texans are not a playoff team or a contender … but they will cash tickets. I genuinely believe, thanks to the preseason, over 4.5 wins is the play.
2. How many offensive linemen need to get hurt before you fade the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? And now the Dallas Cowboys are deteriorating. Enough is enough. Under 50 in the season opener is the right play. Tampa Bay’s offense will have difficulty adjusting to its new line and its receivers won’t be at full strength. Short passes will be the mindset. The Cowboys will be OK, but losing Tyron Smith to a torn hamstring is significant. Dak Prescott will feel the pressure, literally, and points will be at a premium. The over/under of 50 is just way too high. I know it’s a primetime game and the public will probably play the over but the sharps drive the market. That opening Sunday night should be uneventful, all things considered. I really like under 50. I feel like this thing will close at 48.
3. Understandably, quarterbacks occupied several preseason discussions. Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is pushing Mitch Trubisky, although it seems as though the rookie will not start the opener. Malik Willis has shown flashes, but Ryan Tannehill is the starter in Tennessee. Jacoby Brissett is the guy in Cleveland, even though his lone preseason action was pedestrian statistically, and that’s putting it kindly.
It sure looks like Geno Smith is going to start for the Seattle Seahawks. I am surprised to write this. It’s 2022 and Smith is apparently one of the world’s top 32 quarterbacks. Go figure. I do expect Drew Lock, whose plan got derailed by testing positive for COVID-19, to take over in Week 3 or 8. The schedule just makes sense for those particular weekends, and his upside is higher than Smith’s.
However, give Smith credit for grinding and finding a new home. I will look to fade this team every which way. However, I will probably back them once Lock takes over as the starter and has a game or two under his belt. It’s all about picking the right spot … unless you just bet on the Ravens preseason money line.
Unfortunately, we now have to wait until 2023.
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