LAST week threw up more than a few shocks but we had a winning week, with only Green Bay being drastically wrong.
There’s a lot of away team underdogs this time round and they make up the bulk of Week 2’s selections…
2022 Predictions W-L-D: 3-2 (60%)
All odds courtesy of Paddy Power
Panthers @ Giants (-2.5) – 18:00
Brian Daboll showed some BIG cajones in going for the win late on away at the Titans, when an extra point would likely have sent the game to overtime. That in turn may have artificially inflated the Giants in some people’s minds, as I see this a lot closer to a pick ‘em game.
Baker Mayfield woke up from a slumber to show what he can do against his former team, but it wasn’t quite enough to secure the win. Still, if he can connect on a few more deep shots to Robbie Anderson, then he can have success against the G-men, who allowed 266 yards on 20 completions against Tennessee.
Again, I think the Panthers’ late loss and Giants’ late win has sweetened this line to where I’m happy to take Carolina with a 2.5 point cushion. It’s going to be another close one, but Mayfield inspires at the end to steal a win.
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Prediction: Panthers 24 Giants 23 (Panthers +2.5)
Commanders @ Lions (-2.5) – 18:00
The full Carson Wentz experience was on show for Washington fans in week 1, but it was enough to snatch victory against the FRUSTRATING (all caps) Jags. They roll into Ford Field on Sunday as underdogs and this pick leans hard into the Dan Campbell/Detroit theory.
As an underdog covering the spread, the Lions were exceptional last year (way over 50% success) and did it again last Sunday. But I find it hard to trust them as a 2.5 point favourite. Their defense gave up 455 yards, 239 in the air. And even with his interceptions, one thing Wentz did do well was push the ball upfield to star targets Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
I don’t think many people marked up Washington starting 2-0 but here we are… In a wider open-looking NFC East due to Dak Prescott’s injury, the often-maligned Commanders should be feeling themselves. Detroit have allowed 30 or more points in five of their last nine home games, it could well be six in ten come Sunday night.
Prediction: Commanders 30 Lions 24 (Commanders +2.5)
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Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5) – 18:00
The one oasis of spread covering I can find in this otherwise underdog-filled desert. Baltimore quietly and efficiently disposed of the Jets on Sunday. This will be a much tougher test, but can the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa do any more than 5.2 yards per attempt, which is what the Ravens allowed Joe Flacco (4th best in the league)?
I say no. For all that Miami showed against the Patriots, don’t be fooled into thinking that New England are any more than a bottom ten team this season. Lamar Jackson was quiet on the ground Sunday (17 yards on six carries) but still got it done in the air, with 213 yards and three TDs.
He’s 5-2 against the AFC East in his career, while Baltimore had a winning spread record last season as a home team. I see the Ravens winning by around a touchdown.
Prediction: Dolphins 20 Ravens 27 (Ravens -3.5)
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Seahawks @ 49ers (-9.5) – 21:05
This line was 8.5 points and I liked it then: I like it even more with a 9.5 handicap on the Seahawks. Yes, you could argue that the second half of Geno Smith’s QB play (6/10, 34 yards) was closer to his mean than the first half (17/18, 100+ passer rating). Yes, you could argue that Trey Lance and the Niners in general shouldn’t be critiqued too much in farcical monsoon conditions at Soldier Field.
But 9.5 points? In a divisional matchup? When Lance has yet to show that he’s even the best QB on his roster, let alone the future of the franchise? It’d take a braver man than me to back that spread to be covered.
And a reminder: The 49ers home record under Kyle Shanahan is not good. Even last season, they lost all of their first four games at Levi Stadium. Yes, the likes of Bosa, Deebo, Kittle et al should see them over the line here but I think the Seahawks make them scrap for their lives, even on a short week. Get this line while you can.
Prediction: Seahawks 20 49ers 24 (Seahawks +9.5)
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Cardinals @ Raiders (-5.5) – 21:25
It’s been a sobering few days for Arizona. The organisation have clearly put trust in Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury: So it no doubt stung to see the Chiefs look leagues better and blow them out at home.
This prediction stems from the idea that Kansas City were just at their irrepressible best. Murray still managed to spearhead a 21 point performance, the defense however needs to wake up quickly. Las Vegas meanwhile allowed 8.2 yards per attempt in the air against the Chargers. That was sixth worst in the league, so Murray could find success against a poor-performing secondary.
It’s another one where even if I don’t 100% believe that the Cardinals win on the road, I’m more than happy to believe that they won’t lose by six or more. Vegas gets a last-minute field goal victory, but the spread is intact.
Prediction: Cardinals 24 Raiders 26 (Cardinals +5.5)
Acca:
Panthers +2.5
Commanders +2.5
Ravens -3.5
Seahawks +9.5
Cardinals +5.5
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