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Through two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs, each of the top three favorites entering the postseason have been eliminated. The Boston Bruins and Colorado Avalanche fell in the first round, while the Edmonton Oilers were eliminated in Round 2.
The upsets have also been reflected in a game-by-game basis. Underdogs are 39-31 this postseason, up 23.25 units. It would be the fifth time in the past six seasons that underdogs have been profitable. In that timeframe, underdogs are up 58.43 units.
Road teams are up 16.61 units this postseason and are now up 26.19 units over the past five non-bubble postseasons. However, that trend has not reached the Carolina Hurricanes, who are 5-1 at home this postseason (+3.57 units) and 12-2 over the past two postseasons (+8.97 units).
The Hurricanes now enter the conference finals as +230 favorites. Those are the longest odds for the Stanley Cup favorite entering the conference finals since the 2005 lockout. They look to avoid the same fate as the Bruins and Maple Leafs, who entered each of the previous two rounds as title favorites, only to fall to the Panthers.
Florida Panthers (+115) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-135)
The Panthers’ Stanley Cup odds dipped as long as 150-1 when they trailed the Bruins three games to one in the first round. They were 35-1 entering the playoffs, which would be by far the longest Stanley Cup title odds entering the playoffs in the past 35 seasons. The Los Angeles Kings were 22-1 entering the 2012 playoffs, which are currently the longest odds in that span.
The Hurricanes’ title odds were never longer than 13-1 in the preseason. They enter the Western Conference Final as +230 favorites to win the Stanley Cup. The Panthers eliminated the favorites entering Round 1 (Bruins: +320) and Round 2 (Maple Leafs: +350).
Prior to upsetting both the Bruins and Maple Leafs in the first two rounds, the Panthers had not won a playoff series as underdogs since 1996 when they won each of their first three, all as underdogs.
Since winning the 2006 Conference Finals, Carolina has lost eight straight conference final games, being swept in 2009 and 2019.
The Panthers have played 12 playoff games and been underdogs in every one (+9.02 units). They are the only team in the past six postseasons to be underdogs in every playoff game and reach the conference final.
The Hurricanes are 12-2 at home over the past two postseasons (+8.97 units).
Unders are 50-41-2 in Hurricanes games this season but just 4-7 this postseason. Overs are 48-38-8 in Panthers games this season, but each of their five playoff games in the second round went under.
Carolina won two of the three regular-season matchups. Two of the three games went under the total. Sergei Bobrovsky didn’t start in any of the three meetings, while the Hurricanes won the only time Frederik Andersen started (6-4).
Dallas Stars (+115) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-135)
The Stars entered the season 40-1 to win the Stanley Cup, and their odds were as long as 45-1. They entered the postseason 14-1. The Golden Knights entered the postseason at 12-1. They entered the season at 20-1 and their odds were as long as 22-1 in February.
This is a rematch of the 2020 conference finals in the bubble. The Stars (+210) upset the Golden Knights (-250) in five games.
Both teams have been more profitable on the road this season. The Golden Knights are +13.44 units on the road and +2.8 units at home. The Stars are +6.78 units on the road and -10.05 units at home. Vegas is the only team remaining to be profitable this season, third-best in the entire NHL behind the Bruins and Seattle Kraken (+16.24 units).
Vegas started five different goaltenders this season and were profitable with each one. Adin Hill’s mark of +5.31 units is the best of any of their starting goalies.
Overs are 8-5 in Stars games this postseason. Unders are 49-42-4 in Stars games this season, and they are 46-42-5 in Golden Knights games.
The Stars won all three regular-season matchups, though two of the three wins came in overtime. Aden Hill did not start any of the three meetings for Vegas. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by exactly one goal with six games going to overtime.
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