The UEFA Champions League round of 16 continues with the second legs of four matchups taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday, after which time the quarterfinals draw will take place.
With all that in mind, let’s get to this week’s games. As always, remember that these bets are for results at the end of regulation only.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Tuesday
FC Porto (+170), Inter Milan (+160), Draw (+230)
(Inter leads aggregate 1-0)
Inter Milan took the first matchup 1-0 and is a slight favorite over Porto. Who do you see winning this match and who do you see advancing to the quarters?
Paul Carr: In the first leg, Porto had better chances than Inter (1.7 expected goals to Inter’s 0.7) until Otavio’s 78th-minute red card. His absence from this game makes me hesitate a bit on picking Porto, but Inter’s season-long inconsistency and Porto’s strength at home (14 wins and three losses this season) are enough to convince me. Porto beat both Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen at home in the group stage, and I think they can do it again. I’ll take Porto to win in 90 minutes (+170), and I don’t hate Porto to advance (+275) either.
Man City (-270), Leipzig (+700), Draw (+380)
(Tied 1-1)
The first leg was 1-1, but Man City is a heavy favorite here vs. Leipzig. Do you see them backing that up or is a major upset in store?
Carr: RB Leipzig bottled up the Man City attack relatively well in the first leg, conceding 12 shots and 1.2 expected goals, both among City’s fewest in a game this season. Leipzig also have only two losses in 24 games since October, and both losses were by a single goal, so playing Leipzig +1.5 (-125) is quite appealing. However, top scorer Christopher Nkuku (thigh) and defensive midfielder Xaver Schlager (ankle) are both out of this second leg, making it difficult to see Leipzig either keeping up with City or holding Pep Guardiola’s side at bay. City home games have meant goals all season, with 16 of 20 matches having at least three goals, and a dozen of them having four or more. I’ll take over 3 goals at even money.
Wednesday
Napoli (-210), Frankfurt (+575), Draw (+325)
Frankfurt is chasing two goals here with Napoli more than a 2-1 favorite in leg 2. Who do you like here?
Carr: Napoli have never made the European Cup quarterfinals, but they’re priced at -15000 to do so now. Napoli dominated the first leg with 70 percent possession, outshooting Eintracht Frankfurt 18 to five, with 2.9 expected goals to Frankfurt’s 0.5. I see no reason for this second leg to be different, especially with Frankfurt’s top scorer, Randal Kolo Muani, suspended after his first-leg red card. Napoli will have their full squad available, having won 14 of 17 home games this season, with the expected-goals advantage in all 17 games. I’d rather get a better price of course, but even the juicy -210 number isn’t enough to keep me from playing Napoli to win this match and emphatically advance to the quarters.
Real Madrid (+130), Liverpool (+180), Draw (+270)
(Real Madrid leads 5-2)
The defending cup holders took the first leg of the 2022 Final rematch 5-2. How do you see leg 2 being played with such a huge lead in aggregate?
Carr: In the Champions League era, no team has advanced after losing the first leg by three goals at home. Liverpool won’t likely be the first club to do so, since Real Madrid would advance even with a two-goal loss. Because of that, anything seems possible in this match, much like the first leg. I’m staying away from a result, but Real Madrid should again have plenty of chances as Liverpool pushes for goals. Real Madrid thrive on the counter, and they’ve scored at least twice in 12 of 17 home games this season, with at least 2.0 expected goals in 10 of those matches. Combine that with a Liverpool that still has offensive firepower, and I’ll play over 3 goals at -110.
Former ESPN senior researcher Paul Carr is director of content for TruMedia.
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