Each day of the WNBA season, our team of fantasy and betting experts breaks down every game on the slate, making note of everything from injuries and lineup changes to recent trends and more.
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
Here’s what to look for during Tuesday’s slate:
Line: Mystics (-8)
Money line: Dream (+270), Mystics (-340)
Total: 153.5 points
BPI Win%: Mystics (67%)
Questionable: Erica Wheeler (foot), Kristy Wallace (concussion), Nia Coffey (knee), Kia Vaughn (COVID-19)
Ruled out: Tiffany Hayes (knee)
Fantasy need to know: For the Dream, Hayes, Wheeler, Wallace, Coffey and Vaughn have all missed several games in a row with their various injuries and ailments. Only Hayes is officially listed as out for Tuesday, but it seems likely that some/all of the others may sit again as well. In their collective absence, Aari McDonald (available in 52.1% of leagues) has stepped up to average 16.0 PPG, 4.7 APG, 2.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG and 1.3 3PG in 35.0 MPG over the last six outings. AD Durr (available in 92.4% of leagues) has also shown they can produce a lot of points in a hurry, scoring more than 20 points off the bench in three of their last five games.
The fortunes of the Mystics — and of many fantasy teams — hinges on the availability of Elena Delle Donne. Delle Donne has played in two consecutive road games for the first time all season, and is expected to play in all three of the Mystics’ remaining games before the All Star Break. Delle Donne’s presence attenuates the available production for the rest of the Mystics’ frontline, but Alysha Clark (available in 55.0% of leagues) has played well in each of the last two games next to EDD, averaging 15.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.5 SPG and 2.5 3PG in 35.0 MPG in those contests.
Best bet: Mystics -8. Delle Donne’s absences in recent weeks have obscured just how well the team has played when their MVP is on the floor. The Mystics are 4-1 in their last five games with Delle Donne, including wins over the Aces (in Las Vegas), the Sun and the Sky…the three teams with the best records in the WNBA. Meanwhile, the Dream have struggled under the weight of so many injuries, having lost six of their last seven games with an average scoring margin of -7.3 PPG during that stretch. — André Snellings
Line: Lynx (-3)
Money line: Wings (+130), Lynx (-150)
Total: 164.5 points
BPI Win%: Lynx (61.5%)
Ruled out: Allisha Gray (ankle), Satou Sabally (knee)
Fantasy need to know: The Wings have gone to a larger line-up with both Sabally and Gray out, starting both Isabelle Harrison (available in 47.6% of leagues) and Teaira McCowan (available in 39.5% of leagues). Harrison has two double-doubles in her six recent starts, including 15 points and 10 rebounds in her most recent game. McCowan notched 7 points and 8 rebounds in 18 minutes in her most recent start, but in her last five games she has averaged 10.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 0.6 BPG in 18.0 MPG.
The Lynx are a much more competitive team with Sylvia Fowles back from injury, but the primary fantasy streaming option on the team (and in the entire WNBA, right now) is guard Moriah Jefferson (available in 63.3% of leagues). In her last four games, Jefferson has averaged 16.8 PPG, 6.3 APG, 2.8 RPG, 2.3 3PG and 0.5 SPG in 29.8 MPG.
Best bet: Under 164.5. The Wings (4th, 102.7 PP100 possessions) and Lynx (6th, 100.7 PP100) are both in the top-half of the league in Team ORTG, and also in the bottom-half of the league in Team DRTG (WIngs 101.7 PP100 allowed, 8th; Lynx 105.8 PP100 allowed, 11th). But, they’re also both among the slower-paced teams in the league, ranking 8th and 9th with just under 80 possessions per 40 minutes. If we extrapolated their ORTG’s over their average pace, the expected value would be 162.6 points while their defensive expected value would yield about 165.4. The average of those two estimates is 164.0 points even, just under the line. Looking at recent trends, the Lynx and their opponents have combined for more than 164.5 points in two straight games, but only three times in their last 10 overall. The Wings and their opponents have been under in three straight, and six of their last 10 overall. — Snellings
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