The Victorian Nationals are a diminished political party. In just two state elections, the Nats’ numbers on Spring Street have dropped from 13 to just seven.
Regional voters in once-safe seats like Shepparton and Mildura have turned their backs on the junior Coalition partner in favour of female independent candidates.
The National Party is hoping to pick up at least three seats at the November state election.Credit:Chris Hopkins
The drop in support is troubling for the Coalition; any come-from-behind victory for the Opposition is dependent on the Nationals picking up three or more seats.
Despite a false narrative that support for the Nationals has been declining for decades, it wasn’t that long ago – back in 2010 – that the National Party’s first-preference votes jumped from 4.3 per cent in 2002 to 6.75 per cent.
That result meant the Coalition’s junior partner was able to retain all of its seats, including Morwell – which had been pinched from Labor in 2006 – and Mildura, which the party won from an independent. On polling day, the Nationals also recorded the largest swing of any seat in the electorate of Gippsland East which the party won off an independent.
But 12 years is a long time in politics.
Victorian Nationals leader Peter WalshCredit: peterwalsh.org.au
Eight weeks out from the state election, the National Party no longer holds Morwell, Mildura or Shepparton and has just one representative in the upper house.
Based on the current numbers, the Victorian Nationals no longer have “third party” status which they once held by virtue of their combined numbers in the Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council. While the status is largely irrelevant, it does give MPs who hold party positions – such as leader, deputy leader and whip – a little more cash and access to perks of the job such as chauffeur-driven vehicles.
Adding to the Nationals’ woes is the recent departure of deputy leader Steph Ryan who, at 36, was considered not only a future leader, but an asset to attract a new generation of members and supporters.
After years of losing support and struggling with its identity, the Victorian National Party will face a potentially make-or-break moment in November.
Former Victorian Nationals deputy leader Steph Ryan.Credit:Eddie Jim
While the party appears to be in a somewhat dire position, internal party polling showing high levels of dissatisfaction with the Andrews government in regional communities has given the Nats some confidence.
The National Party’s research suggests the drop in support for the Andrews government in regional communities is a combination of both the government’s COVID-19 pandemic response and a perceived city-centric approach by Labor. The Nationals believe they can harness this anger in the same way the Labor Party used the Kennett government’s perceived city-centric focus in 1999 to pick up regional seats.
Party insiders and pollsters believe the National Party’s strongest chance is in the seat of Morwell which takes in the towns of Traralgon, Morwell and Churchill. The Nats have picked Traralgon plumber Martin Cameron – a former football premiership teammate of Russell Northe who is the incumbent MP. Locals say he will be hard to beat.
Mildura MP Ali Cupper won the seat in 2018 by a margin of less than one per centCredit:Sunraysia Daily
The working-class electorate of Morwell was once a Labor stronghold but appears to be a microcosm of Labor’s demise in support among blue-collar and high-vis vest workers it once considered its base.
The National Party is also planning to pour resources into Mildura in the state’s north-west where Swan Hill Mayor Jade Benham is challenging independent MP Ali Cupper who holds the seat by a margin of less than 1 per cent. The Nats intend to campaign on Cupper’s support for Labor’s legislation over the past term of parliament as well as her brief coalition with the progressive Reason Party.
A third must-win seat for the Nationals is Shepparton where the party has again selected a popular female mayor to try to topple independent Suzanna Sheed. While there is a strong chance the National Party could win back Mildura and Morwell on November 26, party insiders admit Shepparton will be a harder prospect.
The preselection of several popular local female candidates is no coincidence. The parliamentary party has had a two-election strategy to attract regional female leaders to its ranks. Two more women, journalist and sheep farmer Annabelle Cleeland, who is standing for Euroa, and Bendigo’s Gaelle Broad, who will run for the upper house Northern Victoria Region, typify this approach.
The Victorian National Party is also hopefully that a change of federal leadership could help the party win back Victorian voters who abandoned it when former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce led the party.
The federal and Victorian divisions had a testy relationship during Joyce’s reign which blew up in 2021 when Victorian leader Peter Walsh moved a disaffiliation motion to try to separate the Victorian and federal teams over climate change policy and the knifing of Michael McCormack.
In a sign the relationship is healing, David Littleproud – the new leader of the federal party – will tour Victoria next week, dropping into key seats the Nationals want to win. His first stop will be Mildura.
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