By Rob Harris, Chris Barrett, Eryk Bagshaw, Farrah Tomazin, Stephen Bartholomeusz, Chris Zappone and Lia Timson
From the direction of trade flows, to crowd control outside the Australian Open. From the room temperature of homes in Europe, to the future of the Olympics.
Sanctions have been imposed, news channels have been banned, refugees in the millions have fanned across Europe, military alliances have been revived.
US Vice President Kamala Harris and then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, right, after being presented with a Ukrainian flag by President Volodymyr Zelensky. The flag was signed by front-line troops in Bakhmut.Credit:AP
Russia’s decision to launch a full-scale land invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has reverberated around the world. Among its worst consequences are the deaths of at least 42,000 people, 15,000 people missing and 14 million displaced.
There are fears for thousands of children forcibly removed to Russia. Arms are flowing to the war from the West and Russia’s allies.
As missiles rain down on Ukrainian cities and power stations, there is a sense that the world cannot be the same after this.
One year after Russia started the war, how has the globe beyond Australia and beyond Ukraine changed? And what will likely never be the same? Our correspondents take a look.
Europe
European governments have been at the forefront of military and humanitarian support to Ukraine since the war began. There are nearly 7.9 million refugees across Europe, while around 4.8 million were registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes as of January.
Nations have fast-tracked plans to eliminate dependency on Russian fossil fuel imports. They have temporarily restarted mothballed coal-fired power plants and triggered measures to mitigate skyrocketing energy prices, which have prompted homes to cut back energy use.
The transatlantic alliance has been put back in the spotlight, rejuvenating NATO and leading to a dramatic increase in European defence spending, most notably in Germany. Support for NATO membership has also risen in previously neutral countries such as Sweden and Finland.
A Ukrainian flag is held high during a protest in Trafalgar Square, London.Credit:AP
Individual countries have imposed their own sanctions on Russia and Russian oligarchs, particularly in Britain, while sending tanks, weapons, ammunition, medical supplies and financial assistance to Ukraine.
The Russian economy has severely contracted as a result of the sanctions, with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimating its gross domestic product dropped by 2.2 per cent in the best-case scenario and by 3.9 per cent in the worst case.
It has sparked speculation on how long Russian President Vladimir Putin will survive in his position if the war drags on and the economy continues to shrink in 2023, with forecasts of a 5.6 per cent decline.– Rob Harris
A Taiwanese woman wears a Ukraine flag-patterned mask during a march in Taipei.Credit:AP
South-East Asia
Russia’s war has ratcheted up regional anxiety about being drawn into a conflict between major powers.
Nations in the region were already keenly aware of the impact that the rivalry between China and the United States could have on them, with potential flash points like the South China Sea and Taiwan on their doorstep. Moscow’s invasion, though, has heightened sensitivities.
South-East Asia’s 11 countries tend to sit on the fence when it comes to geopolitics, not wanting to be forced to choose sides. This tendency has constrained their response to the war in Europe, beyond calling for it to end.
Singapore, the geographically smallest and richest of the ASEAN member states, took the almost unprecedented step of imposing financial sanctions on Russia and condemned its aggression in strong terms.
At the other end of the spectrum, military-ruled Myanmar has gone as far as to express support for the invasion and deepened ties with the Kremlin as it embarked on its own campaign to crush internal resistance. Between these extremes, reactions of others have been coloured by existing relations with Russia, the region’s largest arms supplier.
The war has also complicated South-East Asia’s emergence from COVID-19.
Nowhere was that more obvious than at the G20 world leaders’ summit in Bali in November, when the efforts of host Indonesia to prioritise recovery from the pandemic were railroaded by events in Ukraine.
In a day-to-day economic sense, the ripple effects of Putin’s actions have been felt from Thailand to East Timor, with soaring prices of commodities like fertiliser and wheat and rising inflation has reinforced cost of living pressures and food security as pressing issues.
Indonesia, for example, has endured a cooking oil crisis and Malaysia has experienced a shortage of eggs. More recently the supply chain problems associated with the conflict in Ukraine have helped drive up prices of onions in the Philippines, where they’re a kitchen staple, to the point where they cost more than meat. – Chris Barrett
Women load plastic bottles containing bulk cooking oil provided by the government in Indonesia.Credit:AP
North Asia
For Beijing, the invasion that started just four days after the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics, where Putin and Xi Jinping had paraded their “unbreakable friendship”, has become an embarrassment. Kyiv was meant to be taken within weeks.
China’s energy costs have surged and so has pressure on Beijing to condemn the invasion. But China has straddled the fence for long enough that people have stopped asking questions.
By June, it had become Russia’s biggest importer of crude oil and coal imports hit a five-year high. Next year the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline will begin construction. When it is finished, Russia will become China’s primary gas supplier, making Moscow more dependent on Beijing than ever before as its markets in Europe and the West disappear.
The corollary is that the invasion of Ukraine has drawn Japan, South Korea and Australia closer to the US and triggered a military build-up aimed at deterring any threat to Taiwan. Beijing may have gained a short-term geopolitical and economic boost from Russia’s actions, but its long-term plans to unify with Taiwan have become a lot harder.
If Russia had any illusions about its great power status, they were destroyed after Putin’s meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, with Xi in September. Putin, cap in hand, walked into the meeting with the Chinese president with his troops demoralised and his supply lines choked.
China had long ago overtaken the Russian economy in size and strength, but this was the moment where its dominance crystallised. “We understand your questions and concerns,” Putin said publicly in front of Xi – the only time in the year-long invasion that the Russian leader has displayed a semblance of contrition. – Eryk Bagshaw
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping last February before the invasion.Credit:Getty
United States
Putin’s invasion has defined President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda, rattled the country’s economy and led to growing unease among millions of Americans.
Rallying international support against Russia’s aggression has been a major focus for the Biden administration. However, some Americans are becoming concerned about their country’s escalating involvement in a protracted war.
This month a study by Pew Research suggested that more than a quarter of the country believes the US is providing too much support, the highest rate since the war began.
This is also presenting a political challenge for the president, as Republicans, who won control the House of Representatives at the November midterms, are starting to voice opposition to continued funding.
America’s economy has also been shaken. The combination of sanctions against Russia and Moscow’s retaliation has reverberated through global food and energy markets, exacerbating inflation in the US, which rose to record highs last year, and undercutting growth.
The oil shock sparked by the war sent average petrol prices above $US5 a gallon (3.7 litres) last June, making life harder for Americans already struggling with the soaring price of everything from food and furniture to rents. Yet Biden has consistently said he will stand with Ukraine “for as long as it takes”. – Farrah Tomazin
US petrol prices soared last year.Credit:AP
Business and trade
Before it decided to invade Ukraine, Russia supplied about 40 per cent of Europe’s gas and produced more than 10 per cent of the world’s oil. After the war, regardless of the outcome, it will have lost its major market for gas and will be producing significantly less oil.
Global energy markets have been changed, probably forever.
Europe won’t renew its contracts, so Russia has lost its main energy market. The alternative customers – mainly China and India – are more opportunistic and the cost of getting oil and gas to them is far higher.
Europe is now importing gas from the US and LNG from the Asia Pacific market while accelerating its clean energy generation, reopening coal mines and nuclear facilities and reducing energy usage.
Of particular consequence for Australia is that the emergence of Europe as a new and substantial buyer of gas in our region means that, in an LNG market where supply and demand were roughly balanced, prices have surged.
Because the three big Queensland coal seam gas producers have connected what was once a purely domestic market for Australian gas to the international market, domestic prices have also spiked and domestic supply is under pressure.
The sanctions and price caps on Russian oil and refined products, along with the withdrawal of Western expertise and technology, are damaging Russia’s oil fields and infrastructure and will significantly diminish what used to be about 45 per cent of its government’s revenue base. – Stephen Bartholomeusz
Russia has lost its gas markets in Europe – probably forever. Credit:Getty
Africa
As Russia had become isolated from Europe and the US, it has sought to expand diplomatic and trade relationships in Africa.
The tactic has often succeeded, most recently in Central African Republic, where mercenaries from the Wagner Group and other Russian private military companies have gained access to lucrative gold and diamond mining.
Of the 34 countries that abstained from voting on a draft UN resolution condemning Russia’s aggression and demanding full withdrawal of troops from Ukraine last year, several were African: South Africa, Mali, Mozambique, the Central African Republic, Angola, Algeria, Burundi, Madagascar, Namibia, Senegal, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.
French President Emmanuel Macron last year accused Russia of feeding anti-French propaganda in Africa to serve its “predatory” ambitions.
– Rob Harris
South America
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the US to rethink its rocky relations with oil-rich Venezuela. In November, the US eased fuel sanctions on the country, in a deal that would see the United Nations administer a fund of humanitarian aid to the Venezuelan people. It’s a first step to bringing Venezuela back into the oil market.
Brazil has maintained a policy of neutrality, even as it changed leadership from far-right president Jair Bolsonaro to leftist Luis Inacio Lula da Silva. In a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Lula attributed some responsibility for the war to Ukraine. But last week, Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira verbalised for possibly the first time that Brazil recognised Russia’s invasion as an act of aggression. He denied this meant a change of policy to one of “taking sides”.
Argentina and Colombia have joined Brazil in refusing to send equipment and munitions to Ukraine. The Chilean position is less clear, with its president Gabriel Boric promising Scholz it would contribute to multilateral efforts to find peace.
The war has caused regional price increases in fuel, gas, fertilisers and foodstuffs including wheat, soy, corn and meat, but in Brazil’s case at least, some of these have been offset by its own increased exports as Russia and Ukraine’s products disappeared from the market. – Lia Timson
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government has recognised Russia’s invasion as an act of aggression.Credit:Bloomberg
The internet
In cyberspace, Western governments were forced to acknowledge the geopolitical reality behind ransomware gangs – namely that the most destructive and costly ones operated with impunity from Russian-controlled territory.
In October, the White House convened the ransomware taskforce to boost global and private sector cooperation in countering cybercrime.
When the US imposed a raft of sanctions on Russian oligarchs and froze their assets, the White House directed the Department of Treasury to scrutinise cryptocurrency exchanges for the movement of tokens that could benefit the oligarchs.
The US also stepped up what it calls “hunt forward” operations, which involve government cybersecurity experts sitting “side-by-side” with partner nations such as Ukraine, Poland and Estonia, to “hunt on the networks of the host nation’s choosing, looking for bad cyber activity and vulnerabilities”.
As pro-Kremlin hackers and exploits are discovered, the information is cycled back to the US government – and importantly – big tech firms, to close gaps in their software and networks. This frustrates the ability of Russia’s hackers to conduct intrusions on the computer networks of democracies. This marks an evolution in the Western approach.– Chris Zappone
Sport
Days after the invasion began, FIFA, the world governing body of soccer, and the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) suspended Russian teams from their competitions with immediate effect. UEFA moved its 2022 Champions League final match from St Petersburg to Paris.
The All England Club banned Russian and Belarusian players from competing on Wimbledon’s courts, while the Australian Open banned the two countries’ flags and insignia, which meant women’s champion Aryna Sabalenka, from Belarus, took her title under a neutral flag.
International opposition to both nations’ participation in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics is growing. Thirty-five countries, including the US Germany and Australia, are expected to demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes be banned.
The move will put intense pressure on the International Olympic Committee as it seeks to uphold the event’s peaceful symbolism. Any ban will evoke memories of Cold War-era boycotts, while Russian participation could lead to scenes reminiscent of the clash between Hungarian and Soviet athletes at the 1956 Games in Melbourne. – Chris Zappone
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