Tories face by-election triple whammy: ‘Unofficial pact’ between Labour and the Lib Dems could see the Conservatives lose three seats, pollster says
- The Conservatives could lose massive majorities in Mid Bedfordshire and Selby
An ‘unofficial pact’ between Labour and the Liberal Democrats could see the Tories lose the three seats vacated by Boris Johnson and his allies, a major pollster said yesterday.
The former prime minister’s seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip should be a ‘breeze’ for Sir Keir Starmer’s party to overturn, according to Ben Page, chief executive of polling firm Ipsos.
But the other by-elections – triggered in Mid Bedfordshire by Nadine Dorries and Selby and Ainsty by Nigel Adams – could see the Conservatives lose massive majorities due to tactical voting.
The Tories have already fallen victim to either Labour or the Liberal Democrats standing down to benefit the other in several by-elections this Parliament.
Mr Page told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme: ‘They [the Lib Dems] might do it in Mid Bedfordshire. There is a huge majority there, 24,000, but they’ve done things like that before in Amersham [in 2021]. It does require Labour in that seat to really stand down. It requires a fair amount of tactical voting.
The former prime minister’s seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip should be a ‘breeze’ for Sir Keir Starmer’s party to overturn, according to Ben Page, chief executive of polling firm Ipsos
‘And I think the challenge in this situation… is we’re now much closer to the general election, is Labour really going to stand aside?’ In Selby and Ainsty, he said, where the Tories have a 20,137 majority, ‘the Liberal Democrats might decide not to bother too much there and leave it to Labour to have a go’ at flipping the constituency.
Both Labour and the Lib Dems insisted they were set to fight to win every by-election and rejected any notion of an unofficial electoral pact.
But last night a Tory source said: ‘Labour and the Lib Dems have done it before, and we expect them to try to deny voters a true choice again.’
Luke Tryl, from the More in Common think-tank, said: ‘While it won’t be said openly, electoral logic means it’s almost certain we’ll see a repeat of the informal pact we saw in the Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections with Labour giving the Lib Dems a free run in Dorries’ old seat while the Lib Dems repay the favour to Labour in Hillingdon.’
The Tories have started knocking on doors in Mid Bedfordshire, with party chairman Greg Hands and deputy chairman Luke Hall seen on the campaign trail yesterday.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey will visit today, hoping to overturn a 30,000 deficit to the Tories from the 2019 election. He said: ‘We’ll stand candidates in both those elections and we’re going to take on the Conservatives on their dreadful record.
‘There’ll be no pacts, no deals. We will fight both by-elections. Voters will make the decision.
‘They’ll decide which party is best placed to beat the Conservatives. We’ll put our case in both constituencies.’
Other by-elections – triggered in Mid Bedfordshire by Nadine Dorries and Selby and Ainsty by Nigel Adams – could see the Conservatives lose massive majorities due to tactical voting.
A Labour spokesman added: ‘Labour will be fighting all of these by-elections and fighting them to win.
‘There are no no-go areas for the Labour Party under Keir Starmer, and there will be no deals with the Lib Dems or any other party.’
In 2021, the Liberal Democrats took Chesham and Amersham in a by-election despite placing third in the seat during the general election two years prior.
It is believed that Labour barely campaigned in the seat in order to create a free run for Sir Ed’s party to defeat the Conservatives.
In North Shropshire, where a similar swing was achieved the same year, Labour frontbencher Yasmin Qureshi effectively admitted Labour had no chance in the area but the Lib Dems ‘have an opportunity’ to take the seat.
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