More people are expected to die from COVID-19 than cardiovascular disease or lung cancer this year, as high rates of infection, including among older Australians, result in a significant death toll from the current wave.
COVID-19 is set to be the third-leading cause of death in Australia in the first seven months of 2022, an analysis by the Actuaries Institute’s pandemic mortality working group concluded.
The working group found deaths from the virus were expected to total 7100 by the end of July, a figure higher than cardiovascular disease (5500 expected deaths, mostly strokes) and lung cancer (5400 expected deaths).
About 10,000 deaths were expected to have been recorded from ischaemic heart diseases, also known as coronary heart disease, and dementia, respectively, by the end of last month.
“What seems to be driving the high number of deaths is just the high number of [COVID] cases in the population,” said Jennifer Lang, the working group’s convenor.
Analysts tallied COVID-19 deaths reported by state and territory health departments this year, applying a model to deduct the proportion of deaths likely to have died with – as opposed to from – the virus. This model is derived from Australian Bureau of Statistics data, which publishes data on COVID-19 deaths with about a three-month delay.
The figures were compared with projected deaths from other ailments, based on annual averages.
Deaths from COVID-19 used to peak three weeks after cases, although University of NSW mathematician and pandemic modeller, associate professor James Wood, said this had been closer to two weeks with the Omicron variant, which has been dominant in Australia throughout 2022.
After cases peaked in mid-to-late July, Wood said the current wave “should have just passed [its] peak in mortality”.
However, with more COVID deaths occurring outside public hospitals, and so being tallied by other agencies such as births, deaths and marriages, the time when a virus death is reported by state health departments is less uniform than in earlier waves of infection.
“The level of case reporting is also not as high as it used to be, so the level of known cases relative to the number of deaths we see may not necessarily match up,” Lang said.
In February, the working group warned Australia would experience excess annual mortality, or more overall deaths from all causes than expected, in 2022, unless there was a significant reduction in cases. Lang said excess mortality was now expected.
David Muscatello, an associate professor in infectious diseases epidemiology at the University of NSW, agreed this was a foregone conclusion, mostly due to high COVID-19 deaths.
The recent wave has been driven by the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron sub-variants, known to evade immunity gained from earlier infection or vaccination. It has also seen a higher proportion of older people catching the virus, which has affected the death toll.
Of the 164 people NSW virus deaths reported in the week ending July 30, 124 were aged 80 and over, data from NSW Health’s latest surveillance report showed. Sixty-five were in their 90s and 79 were living in residential aged care.
Old age is a risk factor for severe COVID-19.
However, the return of school has shifted the outbreak’s demographics, with NSW data showing cases now rising among 10 to 19-year-olds.
Cases in aged care also appear to have peaked: the number of homes with an active outbreak fell from 1064 to 952 last week, according to federal government weekly reports.
“The age profile of people who are getting infected does seem to change somewhat as each [virus] lineage comes along,” Muscatello said. However, he believed the volume of cases was what was driving Australia’s death toll.
While public health experts and modellers have warned the passing of Australia’s case peak will still be followed by weeks of stress on hospitals, Wood said hospitalisations had peaked earlier than expected before plateauing during July, noting it was possible this trend was blunted by increased booster uptake and antiviral access for the vulnerable.
Stay across the most crucial developments related to the pandemic with the Coronavirus Update. Sign up for the weekly newsletter.
Most Viewed in National
From our partners
Source: Read Full Article
