The 89 biggest threats to life in Britain: Another pandemic, Russian disruption to oil supplies, Artificial Intelligence and volcanic ash clouds, the government’s National Risk Register revealed
- Major new Government report highlights the dangers posed from 89 risks
- Impact assessed by factors such as potential lives lost and financial cost
The full list of 89 major threats facing Britain include another pandemic, Russian disruption to energy supplies and artificial intelligence was publicly released today.
Designed to help Britain prepare for ‘worst-case scenarios’, a new Government report entitled the ‘National Risk Register’ highlights the dangers posed from 89 risks, ranging from climate change to cyber attacks.
The impact of each risk has been assessed by factors such as the potential number of lives lost and financial cost, while the likelihood of each risk has been determined using extensive data modelling and expert analysis.
Another pandemic would be ‘catastrophic’ and could kill 840,000 people, the report says, with the chance of one estimated at between 5 and 25 per cent.
The report states that experts consider a respiratory pathogen to be ‘the most likely cause of a future pandemic affecting the UK’ – echoing the coronavirus crisis.
Another pandemic would be ‘catastrophic’, the report says, with the chance of one estimated at between 5 and 25 per cent
Radiation release from overseas : Such an accident could increase cancer risks in the longer term (Pictured Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station)
In a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’, an ‘unmitigated’ respiratory pandemic with 4 per cent of symptomatic infections requiring hospital care and a case fatality ratio of 2.5 per cent would lead to half of the UK’s population falling ill.
Eight of the biggest threats facing Britain
Pandemic: A new pathogen spreading quickly due to lack of immunity could lead to half of the UK population falling ill – potentially resulting in up to 840,000 deaths. Likelihood: 5-25 per cent.
Larger-scale CBRN attacks: Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks ‘cannot be ruled out’ by terrorists, hostile states or criminals . Likelihood: 1-5 per cent.
Radiation release from overseas: Such an accident could increase cancer risks in the longer term. Likelihood: less than 0.2 per cent.
Terrorist attacks in public spaces: An improvised bomb at a crowded location would result in multiple fatalities. Likelihood: more than 25 per cent.
Attack on an ally: An attacker with a large, advanced military conducting an assault on a Nato partner would likely lead to Britons becoming involved. Likelihood: more than 25 per cent.
Severe space weather: Solar flares, and other phenomena could upset orbiting satellites, disrupting of GPS, aviation or telecommunications. Likelihood: 5-25 per cent.
Low temperatures and snow: Snow lying over multiple regions of the UK and especially cold temperatures would affect vulnerable communities. Likelihood: 5-25 per cent.
Volcanic eruption: An ash-rich eruption into UK airspace could severely disrupt flights. Likelihood: 5-25 per cent.
It would last for at least nine months, with about 1.34million people estimated to require hospital treatment, possibly resulting in up to 840,000 deaths in the UK, the report states.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the potential threat of disruption to global energy supplies has also been included as one of the newly public risks in the 2023 list.
However, its likelihood and impact are relatively low, having been assessed at between 0.2 per cent and 1 per cent and ‘moderate’ respectively.
The latest register also warns that advances in artificial intelligence systems and their capabilities have ‘a number of implications spanning chronic and acute risks’.
It states that AI ‘could cause an increase in harmful misinformation and disinformation, or if handled improperly, reduce economic competitiveness’.
The malicious use of drones is another potential threat to be made public in the list.
The register is the most transparent since its original publication in 2008, sharing some previously classified information.
It also takes into account recent high-profile events in considering risks.
The Government cites the murder of Conservative MP Sir David Amess in its assessment of the assassination of a public figure, for which it says there is a likelihood of more than 25 per cent.
The register measures likelihood on a scale of one to five with above 25 per cent the highest score, but says this is because ‘all risks’ considered ‘are relatively low likelihood events’.
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said last night: ‘This is the most comprehensive risk assessment we’ve ever published, so that government and our partners can put robust plans in place and be ready for anything.
‘One of those rising risks is energy security.
‘We’ve installed the first turbine at the future world’s largest offshore windfarm, which will provide secure, low-cost and clean energy for the British people – enabling us to stand up to Putin’s energy ransom.’
Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks ‘cannot be ruled out’ by terrorists, hostile states or criminals
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the potential threat of disruption to global energy supplies has also been included as one of the newly public risks in the 2023 list
Severe space weather : Solar flares, and other phenomena could upset orbiting satellites, disrupting of GPS, aviation or telecommunications
Mr Dowden will today visit energy supplier SSE’s Able Seaton Port facility to launch the new list.
It comes as the first 260 metre-high wind turbines are installed at Dogger Bank Wind Farm, which the renewables company is overseeing, which ministers say will increase the UK’s energy independence.
Matt Collins, the deputy National Security Adviser, said: ‘A comprehensive understanding of the risks we face is critical to keeping the UK safe.
‘This edition of the NRR, based on the Government’s internal, classified risk assessment offers even more detail on the potential scenarios, response and recovery options relating to the risks facing the UK; ranging from terrorism to conflicts and natural disasters.’
From pandemics to AI: The 89 threats on National Risk Register
Here is the full list of the 89 biggest threats on the National Risk Register:
Terrorism
- International terrorist attack
- Northern Ireland related terrorism
- Terrorist attacks in venues and public spaces: explosive devices
- Terrorist attacks in venues and public spaces: marauding attacks
- Malicious maritime incident
- Malicious rail incident
- Malicious aviation incident
- Strategic hostage taking
- Assassination of a high-profile public figure
- Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) attacks
- Malicious attack on chemicals infrastructure
- Conventional attack: gas infrastructure
- Cyber attack: gas infrastructure
- Conventional attack: electricity infrastructure
- Cyber attack: electricity infrastructure
- Conventional attack: civil nuclear
- Cyber attack: civil nuclear
- Conventional attack: fuel supply infrastructure
- Cyber attack: fuel supply infrastructure
- Attack on government
Cyber
- Cyber attack: health and social care system
- Cyber attack: transport sector
- Cyber attack: telecommunications systems
State threats
- Malicious attack: UK financial CNI
- Cyber attack: UK retail bank
- Total loss of transatlantic telecommunications cables
Geographic and diplomatic risks
- Disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe
- Disruption to global oil trade routes
Accidents and systems failures
- Major adult social care provider failure
- Insolvency of supplier(s) of critical services to the public sector
- Insolvency affecting fuel supply
- Rail accident
- Large passenger vessel
- Major maritime pollution incident
- Incident (grounding/sinking) of a vessel blocking a major port
- Accident involving high-consequence dangerous goods
- Aviation collision
- Malicious drone incident
- Disruption of space-based services
- Loss of Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) services
- Simultaneous loss of all fixed and mobile forms of communication
- Failure of the National Electricity Transmission System (NETS)
- Regional failure of the electricity network
- Failure of gas supply infrastructure
- Civil nuclear accident
- Radiation release from overseas nuclear site
- Radiation exposure from transported, stolen or lost goods
- Technological failure at a systemically important retail bank
- Technological failure at a UK critical financial market infrastructure
- Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore major hazard (COMAH) site
- Accidental large toxic chemical release from an onshore major hazard (COMAH) site
- Accidental fire or explosion on an offshore oil or gas installation
- Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline
- Accidental fire or explosion at an onshore major accident hazard pipeline
- Accidental work-related (laboratory) release of a hazardous pathogen
- Reservoir/dam collapse
- Water infrastructure failure or loss of drinking water
- Food supply contamination
- Major fire
- Natural and environmental hazards
- Wildfire
- Volcanic eruption
- Earthquake
- Humanitarian crisis overseas: natural hazard event
- Disaster response in the Overseas Territories
- Severe space weather
- Storms
- High temperatures and heatwaves
- Low temperatures and snow
- Coastal flooding
- Fluvial flooding
- Surface water flooding
- Drought
- Poor air quality
- Human, animal and plant health
- Pandemic
- Outbreak of an emerging infectious disease
- Animal disease: major outbreak of foot and mouth disease
- Animal disease: major outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza
- Animal disease: major outbreak of African horse sickness
- Animal disease: major outbreak of African swine fever
- Major outbreak of plant pest: Xylella fastidiosa
- Major outbreak of plant pest: Agrilus planipennis
- Societal
- Public disorder
- Industrial action
- Reception and integration of British nationals arriving from overseas
Conflict and instability
- Deliberate disruption of UK space systems and space-based services
- Attack on a UK ally or partner outside NATO or a mutual security agreement requiring international assistance
- Attack against a NATO ally or UK-deployed forces, which meets the Article 5 threshold
- Conventional attack on the UK mainland or overseas territories
- Nuclear miscalculation not involving the UK
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