Polls close in three by-elections as Rishi Sunak faces anxious wait to see if Tories will suffer a chastening triple blow – but could ULEZ backlash save them in Boris Johnson’s old Uxbridge seat?
- Results due in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, Selby & Ainsty, and Somerton & Frome
Polls have closed in three by-elections as Rishi Sunak faces an anxious wait to see if he will be dealt a chastening triple blow.
Voters in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty, and Somerton and Frome spent today choosing new MPs following recent resignations from the House of Commons.
The results of all three contests are expected in the early hours of Friday morning, after polling stations were open between 7am and 10pm on Thursday.
The Prime Minister is braced for defeat in all three constituencies, which were all won by the Tories at the 2019 general election.
If Mr Sunak does suffer a triple loss, he will become the first PM for 55 years – since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 – to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.
It will also rattle Tory MPs about their chances of keeping Sir Keir Starmer out of Downing Street ahead of the next general election, which is expected next year.
As polling stations closed tonight, a Tory source admitted the party was in for a ‘very challenging’ night.
Polls have closed in three by-elections as Rishi Sunak faces an anxious wait to see if he will be dealt a chastening triple blow
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour are hoping to snatch both Selby and Ainsty, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip from the Tories
Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are eyeing victory in Somerton and Frome to take another ‘Blue Wall’ seat off the Tories at a by-election
What by-elections are happening, why, and who are the candidates?
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
Triggered by the resignation of Boris Johnson after a controversial Partygate report found he deliberately misled the Commons.
Candidates: Steve Tuckwell (Conservative); Danny Beales (Labour)
Selby & Ainsty
Called following the exit of Mr Johnson’s ally Nigel Adams amid a row over not getting a peerage on the ex-PM’s honours list.
Candidates: Claire Holmes (Conservative); Keir Mather (Labour)
Somerton & Frome
Prompted by David Warburton quitting after admitting cocaine use amid allegations of sexual harassment.
Candidates: Faye Purbrick (Conservative); Sarah Dyke (Lib Dem)
Labour are hoping to snatch both Selby and Ainsty, as well as Uxbridge and South Ruislip, while the Liberal Democrats are eyeing victory in Somerton and Frome to take another ‘Blue Wall’ seat off the Tories at a by-election.
Sir Keir is thought to be planning a victory tour and preparing to visit both Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Selby and Ainsty on Friday.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey emailed supporters tonight to boast his party was set for ‘another historic result’.
The Tory source said: ‘There’s no doubt that this was always going to be a very challenging set of by-elections, especially given the circumstances in which they were brought about.
‘We have to wait for the results to come in, but by-elections are rarely won by governing parties and they are rarely good indicators of general election performance.
‘Across all of these campaigns we have heard zero enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and their lack of answers.
‘We now need to redouble our efforts earning back the trust of voters by delivering on our plan to halve inflation, grow the economy , reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.’
The Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election was triggered by ex-PM Boris Johnson’s resignation from the Commons last month, amid his anger at another Partygate probe finding against him.
Selby and Ainsty, in North Yorkshire, was vacated by ex-minister Nigel Adams – an ally of Mr Johnson – who quit the Commons a day after the former premier following a row over a peerage.
The contest in Somerton and Frome, in Somerset, was triggered by the resignation of David Warburton as the local MP after admitting cocaine use amid allegations of sexual harassment.
Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine tonight said taking the Somerset constituency off the Tories would be a ‘watershed moment’ for the party.
‘If we succeed in overturning the huge 19,000 majority in Somerton and Frome, in what should be a safe Conservative seat, it would mark a watershed moment for the Liberal Democrats,’ she said.
‘It would prove yet again that in vast swathes of the country, from Somerset to Surrey, the best way to get rid of this Conservative government is to vote for the Liberal Democrats.’
The Tories retain some hope they could yet cling on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in west London, where there has been a local backlash against Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the capital’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).
Labour’s candidate in the constituency, Danny Beales, recently demanded a delay to the ULEZ expansion despite him having previously signalled support for the move.
A Labour spokesman tried to manage expectations of a double victory for Sir Keir as polling stations closed tonight.
They said: ‘It’s going to be some time before we get any results. But what we do know is that none of these seats have ever had a Labour MP before, so they were always going to be a challenge.
‘We didn’t even win Uxbridge in 1997 and to win Selby and Ainsty would require us to overturn the biggest majority in our history.
‘So while we don’t know if we’ve made it over the line, it’s clear that Keir Starmer’s leadership of a changed Labour Party, back in the service of working people, has seen voters put their trust in us — many for the first time.’
The Tories retain some hope they could yet cling on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in west London, where there has been a local backlash against the ULEZ expansion
The seat of Selby and Ainsty, in North Yorkshire, was vacated by ex-minister Nigel Adams following a row over a peerage
The contest in Somerton and Frome, in Somerset, was triggered by the resignation of David Warburton as the local MP after admitting cocaine use amid allegations of sexual harassment
On Wednesday night, Mr Sunak issued a rallying call to Tory MPs despite admitting the three by-election contests would be a ‘tough battle’.
At an end-of-term meeting of the Conservatives’ 1922 Committee, before Parliament’s summer recess, the PM appealed for his MPs to unite regardless of the by-election results and pledged to ‘throw everything’ at winning the next general election.
Mr Sunak said: ‘In the coming months, I am going to set out more of what I would do if I had a full term.
‘I was recently described as a full spectrum modern Conservative and you are going to see that in the programme I lay out.’
The PM also vowed to show the public ‘who is really on their side’, adding: ‘And that is what will propel us to victory.’
On Thursday, Sir Keir urged voters to ‘vote for change’ in the three by-elections, posting on Twitter: ‘Where you start, shouldn’t determine where you end up.
‘When you work hard, you should be able to get on. Labour’s mission to grow a secure economy in Britain will mean your ambition is realised.’
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said a victory for his party in Somerton and Frome would ‘send a clear message to the Conservatives that they have failed our country on the NHS, the cost-of-living crisis and protecting our rural communities’.
‘If the Liberal Democrats succeed in overturning this massive 19,000 Conservative majority, it will show voters in Somerset are fed up with being taken for granted by Rishi Sunak and his failing Government,’ he added.
If the Tories do lose all three seats, it would see them shed sizeable majorities in each constituency.
Mr Johnson held Uxbridge and South Ruislip with a 7,000 majority when he was prime minister at the last general election in 2019.
Mr Adams secured North Yorkshire’s Selby and Ainsty with a 20,000 majority that night, a similar margin to Mr Warburton’s victory in Somerton and Frome.
The PM’s press secretary this week acknowledged it would be tough for the Tories to hold the three seats on Thursday.
She said: ‘By-elections, for incumbent governments, are very difficult, that is the nature of them.
‘The election that the Conservative Party is most focused on is the general election.’
Sir Keir’s spokesman downplayed Labour’s chances, saying Uxbridge and South Ruislip was not won even during the party’s 1997 landslide victory under Tony Blair, while Selby and Ainsty would require their best by-election result since the Second World War.
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