Most people may not think much of politicians, but during the past more than two years while the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on just about every aspect of our lives, there is no doubt it would have been a challenging time to govern. And it has been state governments, who were in charge of such facets as the hotel quarantine system, hospitals and determining the level of restrictions, that carried much of the responsibility that impacted our daily lives.
Setting aside for a moment the debate over the rights and wrongs of the many contentious decisions taken by the Andrews government during this time, at a personal level it must have taken a toll on many of the politicians involved and would, no doubt, have been a factor in the exodus on Friday of four of the Andrews government’s most senior ministers.
Jacinta Allan is likely to become the new deputy premier, which will make her the heir apparent to Daniel Andrews.Credit:Justin McManus
But with the departure of Deputy Premier James Merlino, Health Minister Martin Foley, Police Minister Lisa Neville and Martin Pakula, whose portfolios include industry support, tourism and sport, goes an enormous amount of experience. Merlino and Neville have both been in parliament for 20 years, while Pakula marks 16 years this year and Foley 15. They were all ministers of substance. After his impressive stand-in role during the pandemic when Andrews was recovering from his fall, Merlino in particular was touted as a potential future leader.
Along with the retirement of former special minister of state Gavin Jennings in 2020, and announcements from former attorney-general Jill Hennessy, who was also touted as a possible future leader, and planning minister Richard Wynne that they will retire at the election, it leaves just six members of the cabinet Andrews appointed after the 2014 election win.
While the argument repeatedly put forward on Friday by Premier Daniel Andrews was that this is all about renewal, and this does have some validity, Foley’s resignation will give Victorians their fourth health minister in four years — three of them spent dealing with the pandemic — after Jenny Mikakos took over from Hennessy at the 2018 election, only to resign amid the hotel quarantine inquiry in 2020. That looks a lot more like a revolving door than renewal.
In such a crucial portfolio, one in which Foley has been well regarded, that is a serious problem and whoever takes on the vital role will have to hit the ground running. While the Andrews government has thrown billions of dollars at the health system, money cannot fix every aspect of the enormous strain it is under.
The government is in a dominant position in the electorate after a big win in 2018 based on an infrastructure agenda of delivering on time and on budget, but now many of its infrastructure projects are blowing out in cost and time. Its record on the pandemic is mixed and, now all this experience is leaving, it can’t and should not take the electorate for granted.
One surprise has been the likely promotion of Transport Infrastructure Minister Jacinta Allan into the deputy role to replace Merlino. Under Labor convention, the deputy role is held by an MP from a different faction to the premier, who is from the Left. But the appointment of Allan, who is also from the Left, would turn that on its head, giving the same faction control of the two most senior roles in the party room.
With the Treasurer Tim Pallas urging his Right faction colleagues to support Allan, it seems a fait accompli. It will be interesting to watch how the ledger is squared off, with the Right hardly about to give up such a prized position for nothing. For Andrews, who backed Allan, it would be a decisive display of the power he yields within the party and a clear signal that she is the preferred candidate to take over from the Premier when he finally steps aside. Australia’s longest-serving female minister, Allan is known as a hard worker with a combative streak, who gives as good as she gets, particularly in the rough and tumble of question time as leader of the house.
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy will feel he now has a political line of disarray, rats leaving a sinking ship, that he hasn’t had before. Whether that line of argument turns into a potent political weapon will depend on who well Andrews’ new cabinet equips itself during the next few months.
For no matter what the track record of the Andrews government may be, most people will judge it come election time on the team they see before them, not what it once was. Andrews has a big job ahead of him ensuring that his new ministers get to grips as quickly as possible with the many challenges facing the state.
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