The Baltimore Ravens had enjoyed at least a 10-point second-half lead in all but one of their games this season. Some of those leads lasted into or even manifested in the fourth quarter. And yet, the Ravens sit at just 3-3 despite their offensive success – most recently falling to the New York Giants after two late scores from Big Blue.
The trend is not one the Ravens are used to during Lamar Jackson's time as the team's starting quarterback. Baltimore is 31-2 in games they've led by at least 10 points in the second half since Jackson took over in 2018 through the 2021 season, according to ESPN's Bill Barnwell. But in 2022, the Ravens are just 2-3. They're also the first of 39 teams to not have a winning record despite holding a double-digit lead at some point in all six of their games, per ESPN.
"It is not our opponent," Jackson said after the Giants' loss. "I feel like we just beating ourselves with little mistakes here and there."
A quick examination of the Ravens' three losses: A 42-38 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, a 23-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 and the most recent 24-20 loss to the Giants in Week 6. What do they all have in common? Abysmal second-half scoring differentials.
The Ravens have been outscored 65-20 in the second half in their three losses this season, compared with a 46-26 differential in their three wins. The team has also scored just 22 fourth-quarter points but allowed 64 across all six games.
So while the Ravens have proven they can jump out to large leads with a potent offense and stingy defense, they've also shown an inability to maintain those leads — even in wins.
"When you are your own biggest enemy, that's really something that can frustrate anyone," left tackle Ronnie Staley added after Week 6. "We know how much talent we have on this team. We're going to pull it together. That's kind of the frustration that everybody has."
Who's to blame for the Ravens' woes?
It can't all be blamed on Jackson, who has the second-highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL (prior to Monday night) and is averaging 288 total yards per game (passing and rushing). Those numbers are only slightly less than his 2021 average and almost identical to his MVP year in 2019. He's also the 26th-most pressured quarterback, so pass blocking isn't the issue, either.
The more likely culprits are the running game and the defense.
The Ravens have ranked in the top three in rushing attempts and yards every year from 2018-2021. This season, though, Baltimore ranks 12th in attempts and sixth in yards. While the Ravens' 5.9 yards per attempt leads the NFL, a lot of that is because of Jackson's career year on the ground: He leads the team with 56 attempts for 451 yards and two scores while averaging a league-leading 8.1 yards per rush. The rest of the Ravens have just 483 total rushing yards on 101 attempts and two scores. Baltimore's rushing efficiency would also drop to 4.78 yards per attempt without Jackson, which would be 12th in the league.
Running has been a major part of the Ravens' success since 2018, but apart from Jackson, the team hasn't been able to establish a competent ground game this year. That's a major cause for concern moving forward.
The defense, though, is perhaps the biggest offender this season. Baltimore has allowed 5.7 yards per play — tied for 11th most in the league — and 23.5 points per game — 10th most in the league. A lot of that is because of a porous secondary that's given up the fifth-most passing yards per game prior to Monday night. So when game scripts flip and opposing offenses have to try to put up points quickly — like with the Dolphins' 28-point fourth quarter — the Ravens' defense simply isn't equipped to stop them.
"We've made some mistakes, let some ballgames slip away," Ravens defensive end Calais Campbell said. "But we can use it as fuel to get better, to keep fighting, to not relax and to find a way to improve. Or we can just let it eat at you and make more mistakes. I think it's kind of just one of those places where it's still early in the season. We're not going to hit the panic button."
Oddly enough, this isn't new for the Ravens after their defense allowed the most passing yards per game and the most yards per play in 2021. But the Ravens also went just 8-9 in 2021 and missed the playoffs for the first time in Jackson's career. The Ravens' defense ranked top-10 in fewest yards per play, passing yards per game and points allowed in all of Jackson's first three seasons.
Where do the Ravens go from here?
Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey offered perhaps the most poignant response to the Ravens' peculiar season in a tweet after Sunday's loss: "Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. —Albert Einstein."
The Ravens have to do something different, or their once-promising season could quickly go down the drain. Adjustments from first-year defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald should be the first priority for Baltimore. Next up is figuring out for how to fix an offense that can't seem to generate points after halftime.
The AFC North is still up grabs and perhaps more uncertain than ever as all four teams are within one win or tied with the other. The Ravens hold a tenuous advantage over the Cincinnati Bengals to maintain first-place in the division, but that is anything but secure considering the Ravens' plus-17 point differential. But if Baltimore can't solve the issues that have plagued them through six games, the team will have a bigger problem than determining if it should pay Jackson after this season.
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