In 2015, when Labor was sitting on the opposition benches under the leadership of Bill Shorten, a Good Weekend profile of Anthony Albanese included an observation from former Labor defence minister Stephen Smith, who said he was surprised after he left politics by how often people would remark, “I saw you with Albo. He’s a good bloke.” Smith added: “Everyone likes Albo.”
Such goodwill was on display again this week when Albanese downed a schooner of beer to the acclaim of the crowd at a Gang of Youths concert. But that goodwill did not always translate to wanting him to be Australia’s prime minister. Going into the last federal election, Albanese trailed Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister by a sizeable margin. Lining up against previous Labor prime ministers, Albanese appeared to fall short on polish and charisma.
Anthony Albanese is well in front of Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.Credit:James Brickwood
This week’s survey conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Age has put those doubts aside. The public has swung behind Labor with a surge of support to give the new federal government a strong lead, with a primary vote of 42 per cent, up from 33 per cent at the election three months ago. Labor has kept its promises and done nothing silly, and the public is clearly relieved that it made the right choice. In contrast, the Coalition, which is caught in the midst of a scandal over Morrison’s multiple ministries, has fallen away. Its primary vote has dropped from 36 to 28 per cent since the election.
A significant factor in that shift to Labor appears to be the public’s support for Albanese. He now holds a commanding lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister, with 55 per cent backing him compared with 17 per cent for Dutton. And to drive home the dominance Labor now holds, it is now seen as the stronger party when it comes to managing the economy and national security and defence, areas in which the Coalition has traditionally been dominant.
Every incoming government has a honeymoon period and Labor’s has been buttressed by this government’s relatively competent and orderly start to its first term in office. But the term of this government is barely beginning. The ongoing health challenge of the pandemic and the economic headwinds of high inflation, cost of living increases and rising interest rates are issues that will gradually begin to drag at Labor, which can only sheet home the blame to the Coalition for so long.
For the Coalition, the one point of optimism relates to Dutton’s public perception. For a politician who has been a lightning rod for political controversy and typecast as a right-wing warrior over many years, it is surprising that when asked to rate his performance as opposition leader, more than 30 per cent of people polled were undecided. That should give Dutton some hope that a sizeable number of people want to see more of him in the role before making up their minds.
There is also the reality that political fortunes can turn on a dime. Just ask former prime minister Kevin Rudd, who, in one term, went from more popular than Albanese to being tossed out of the leadership role by his own colleagues. Albanese knows all too well that to cement his legacy as leader he needs to survive beyond one term in office, no small feat in modern Australian politics. Albanese once wrote a tribute to his mentor Bob Hawke, remarking that the former Labor prime minister “showed that to secure real change in this nation, you must win election after election after election to set your reforms in concrete”.
Albanese has made a good start as prime minister, and has the chance, as chief political correspondent David Crowe pointed out, to turn it into two or more terms. To do so, he will need to turn a competent start into a solid administration.
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