ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN’s proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Monday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Lakers-Nuggets Game 4
With the Denver Nuggets earning a decisive 3-0 lead in the Western Conference finals, the Los Angeles Lakers face elimination tonight at home. An encouraging angle, at least for Monday’s contest, is that the Lakers are slight favorites in a game with a healthy point total. Let’s delve into how this game might unfold from a fantasy perspective.
Austin Reaves has already amassed the most 20-point showings from an undrafted player in a single playoff run in league history, so there’s clearly some momentum for him as a daily fantasy option and for scoring props. Anthony Davis has become a force on the glass and has been on the floor for at least 40 minutes in each game versus Denver, so even as his rebounding props rise, the opportunity rates appear even stronger.
Huge surprise here — Jamal Murray remains the top play in my model, something that has been the case throughout this series. Simply put, the Lakers don’t have capable point-of-attack perimeter defenders to interrupt Murray’s dynamic scoring and playmaking. After all, he has produced at least 60 DraftKings points in three straight games. Tonight also reads like a good spot for Michael Porter Jr., who has flashed with consecutive double-double performances and could exceed his shooting props, given how his shot diet is largely from beyond the arc.
— Jim McCormick
Breaking down Lakers-Nuggets Game 4
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Game 4: 8:30 p.m. ET, Nuggets lead series 3-0
Records (Against the spread)
Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1)
Lakers: 43-39 (39-41-2)
Line: Lakers (-3) Total: 224.5
BPI projection: Lakers by 0.9
Money line: Nuggets (+130), Lakers (-155)
Injury report:
Nuggets: None reported
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD – Foot); LeBron James, (GTD – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assume GTD players will play
Best bet: D’Angelo Russell under 17.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Lakers face a tough decision on whether to bench Russell. He has the worst plus-minus in the series (-53), and his playing time was cut from 33 minutes in Game 2 to just 20 minutes in Game 3. The Lakers can’t afford any mistakes in Game 4, so it won’t be surprising if Russell sees even fewer minutes Monday night. — Eric Moody
Best bet: LeBron James over 42.5 points + assists + rebounds. When facing adversity, James is not one to back down without a fight. He has been a force to be reckoned with in this series, averaging 23.7 PPG, 10.3 APG and 9.3 RPG. James has proved throughout his career that he has the ability to shine in high-pressure elimination games, averaging 33.5 points in such games. James must be aggressive and lead the charge if the Lakers hope to have a fighting chance Monday night. — Moody
Best bet: Aaron Gordon over 17.5 points + rebounds. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have been causing headaches for the Lakers in this series. While the Lakers’ defense hasn’t primarily focused on Gordon, he has quietly been making an impact, averaging 9.7 PPG and 3.3 RPG. As the Nuggets aim to close out the series and secure their spot in the NBA Finals, Gordon could emerge as one of Denver’s key role players. With their collective strength and Gordon’s contributions, the Nuggets are very capable of finishing the sweep in Game 4. — Moody
Best bet: Jamal Murray over 26.5 points. Murray has averaged 35.0 PPG on 52.1 FG% and 45.5 3PT% through the first three games of this series. He is on fire, and there’s no indication that the Lakers can slow him down. This isn’t a short-term hot streak for Murray, as he has scored 28 or more points in seven of his past 10 games. — Andre’ Snellings
Best bet: Anthony Davis over 13.5 rebounds. While Davis has been inconsistent as a scorer in this series, he has been a force on the glass. Davis has grabbed 14 or more rebounds in three of his past four games and four of his past six games. He will have to clean the glass and play well Monday if the Lakers are to have any hope of staving off elimination. — Snellings
Best bet: Austin Reaves over 17.5 points. Reaves has quietly continued the career breakout he started earlier this season in the playoffs. He has scored 21 or more points in four straight and five of his past six games, including all three against the Nuggets. He is by far the most consistent shooter/scorer on the team and should continue to get his. — Snellings
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