WILL he? Won’t he? We’re talking about Rory McIlroy of course, the market leader for Brookline with practically every bookmaker following his impressive Canadian Open victory.
Winning back-to-back is notoriously difficult. But Rory was the last man to taste victory the week before a Major, and then land the big prize as well.
That was back in 2014, when McIlroy was at the peak of his powers. He won the Open, took a week off, and then won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational and the USPGA in the space of 11 birdie-packed days.
Rory’s successful Canadian Open defence took him back up to third in the world rankings, and he deserves to be the favourite this week.
World No 2 and defending champion Jon Rahm has not shown much this year, apart from beating hardly anyone of note in Mexico, while No 1 Scottie Scheffler seems to have gone off the boil since his Masters victory.
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Betting tips for US Open
Hot shots
Justin Thomas, 12-1.
The former world No 1 managed to win his second USPGA title and finish a close third to McIlroy in Toronto without actually bringing his A game to either event.
There is plenty more in the tank, and his brilliant wedge game will be priceless at Brookline. Thomas averages fewer bogeys than any other player on the PGA Tour, and avoiding bogeys is what US Opens are all about.
He can be forgiven for missing the cut at the Charles Schwab the week after his USPGA win – his form figures for the three events sandwiching that one read 5-1-3. Throw in a share of eighth at Augusta, and he will surely be in contention again.
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Jordan Spieth, 28-1
His putting is not what it used to be, but he has proved one of the top tee to green performers in the game over the past year, which makes him a great fit for Brookline.
Spieth is also a serial contender in the Majors. In addition to his three victories he has racked up another four runner-up finishes, and three third places. Not bad for a player who is still only 28.
He has already won once and finished second on a couple more occasions this year. When he gets hot it definitely pays to follow the hugely likeable Texan,
Mid price
Tony Finau, 35-1
Okay, that is both of Rory McIlroy’s final round playing partners in Toronto getting the thumbs-up, even though they were firmly put in their place. But Finau looks great value at this price.
It is disappointing that Finau has not added to his ‘breakthrough’ win at the Northern Trust eight months ago – the first of the hotly-contested FedEx Cup play-offs. But there have been a few near-misses.
He has been fourth and second in his last two starts, and has now managed top five finishes in all four Majors. And there are real signs that his Achilles heel – his suspect putting – is finally responding to treatment.
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Davis Riley, 66-1
The PGA Tour rookie looked certain to reward each way backers at the USPGA at roughly double these odds, before a double bogey at the 72nd hole dropped him out of a share of eighth.
He showed there were no hangovers from that disappointing finish by finishing fourth at the Charles Schwab, and a couple of tied 13th places – including that one at Southern Hills – are his worst results in his last five starts.
The bookies have woken up to the fact that Riley is an emerging talent. But the odds are still tempting, with up to eleven places on offer if you shop around.
Long shots
Aaron Wise, 75-1
The 25 year old American is a big improver, and he clearly took a lot of confidence from finishing just outside the top twenty in the USPGA.
He was runner-up at the Memorial in his only start since Southern Hills, and he is definitely another of the young Americans who are not too impressed by big reputations.
Wise has honed his skills patiently since being crowned rookie of the year on the PGA Tour in 2018 – when he won the Byron Nelson Classic – and I think he could make a big impact over the next few years.
Tom Hoge, 200-1
His odds reflect the fact that he has missed the cut in his last two starts – at the Charles Schwab and the Memorial – but it is worth remembering before that he finished in a share of ninth at the USPGA.
He also won at Pebble Beach a few months ago, and was runner-up at the American Express tournament. So at his best Hoge is definitely capable of mixing it with the big boys.
Sure, consistency is not his strong suit. But the American has clawed his way into the top forty of the world rankings, and at these odds he is worth a speculative each way interest.
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