LIZZIE KELLY: What you need to be a Grand National winner – low weight, form in key trials, previous experience and stamina is essential… but jumping ability isn’t crucial at Aintree anymore
- There’s a 40-strong field competing in Saturday’s Grand National at Aintree
- Rachael Blackmore’s mount Ain’t That A Shame is among the favourites
- Check out Sportsmail’s Grand National guide on ALL the runners and riders here
Bookmakers expect more than £150million to be wagered on the Grand National, which takes place over 30 fences and four and a quarter miles.
Rachael Blackmore’s mount Ain’t That A Shame is among the favourites for Saturday’s race at Aintree.
Last year’s victor Noble Yeats, runner-up Any Second Now and third-placed Delta Work feature among the 40-strong field.
After downpours on Friday, a largely sunny day is forecast, with the going described as good to soft.
Here, Grade One winning jockey LIZZIE KELLY reveals what you need to be a Grand National winner.
Noble Yeats (above) seeks to record back-to-back wins in the Grand National on Saturday
JUMPING ABILITY
Not as important as it was before they changed the fences. Even though the course is a challenge it is not the same test as it used to be.
You obviously want a solid jumper but you can also see runners, who have not been the most fluent over the type of fences they jump normally, actually improve over Aintree’s unique obstacles. The fences make them think and buck up their ideas.
It is important to have a horse that responds to a jockey’s commands. If they are headstrong then that can be quite difficult from a rider’s perspective.
STAMINA
Davy Russell celebrates as he rides Tiger Roll to victory in 2019
Proven ability to stay is very important. Changes to the qualification rules mean that only horses that have proved themselves over long distances are able to run but this is the most acute test of staying power that most of the line-up have ever faced.
The runners tend to go quickly in the first half mile while the field finds the position in the race that they are happy with. The tempo then settles down towards the end of the first circuit as a bit of water is thrown on the fire.
But the race then changes quickly as the runners head out on to the second circuit and the tempo rises again. From there it is survival of the fittest.
When the runners cross the Melling Road on the second circuit, it seems like the race is entering the closing stages but there are two fences still to jump and it is a long way from there to the finish.
FORM IN KEY TRIALS
Races such as the 3m 6f National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and the Cross Country Chase at that meeting have good records in producing prime Grand National contenders.
The National Hunt Chase obviously shows a runner has good reserves of stamina while the Cross Country Chase is a long race with a lot of jumping which again tests how well a horse stays.
The Cross Country Chase, a race Tiger Roll won ahead of his Grand National victories in 2018 and 2019, also favours an agile jumper who is clever in the way he tackles obstacles. That is a great trait to have going in to the National.
LIZZIE KELLY’S VERDICT
Galvin looks really solid. He is good enough to have run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (fourth last year) and he won the National Hunt Chase at the 2021 Festival.
He comes into the race on the back of a second place to Delta Work in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham last month.
That opponent looks one of the biggest dangers. He has won Cheltenham’s Cross County Chase for the last two years and was third in last year’s Grand National.
1. GALVIN
2. GAILLARD DU MESNIL
3. EVA’S OSKAR
4. MISTER COFFEY
Rachael Blackmore goes over a jump as she rides to victory on Minella Times at Aintree in 2021
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE
Not always important. Plenty of runners arrive at Aintree for the first time and run well without competing at the track before. That was the case with last year’s winner, Noble Yeats.
The old Grand National might have been a culture shock to some horses but that generally doesn’t apply these days.
LOW WEIGHT
Runners carrying 10st 12lb or less have the best record. Clearly in a race over further than four miles, carrying more weight becomes even more significant. In that last few furlongs those extra few pounds can act as anchor and nullify any class differential between rivals.
GRAND NATIONAL ODDS
Aint That A Shame – 8/1
Delta Work – 9/1
Gaillard Du Mesnil – 9/1
Noble Yeats – 10/1
Corach Rambler – 10/1
Mr Incredible – 12/1
Any Second Now – 14/1
The Big Dog – 16/1
Le Milos – 16/1
Vanillier – 18/1
Galvin – 20/1
Longhouse Poet – 20/1
Capodanno – 25/1
Our Power – 25/1
Back On The Lask – 25/1
Roi Mage – 28/1
Velvet Elvis – 28/1
Enjoy Dallen – 28/1
Coko Beach – 33/1
The Big Breakaway – 33/1
Lifetime Ambition – 40/1
Mister Coffey – 40/1
Evas Oskar – 40/1
Dunboyne – 40/1
Fury Road – 50/1
Minella Trump – 50/1
Born By The Sea – 50/1
Sam Brown – 66/1
Carefully Selected – 66/1
Hill Sixteen – 66/1
Gabbys Cross – 66/1
Fortescue – 66/1
Diol Ker – 80/1
A Wave Of The Sea – 80/1
Cloudy Glen – 80/1
Recite A Prayer – 80/1
Darasso – 100/1
Francky Du Berlais – 100/1
Escaria Ten – 150/1
Cape Gentleman – 150/1
Odds from Paddy Power
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