London: A new report has found global attitudes have shifted dramatically against China and Russia since the Ukraine war, and almost no one outside the two countries believe they offer an appealing vision for world order.
The Munich Security Conference’s annual index and report published on Monday found that while there is discontent with the West and the rules-based order the US and its allies are trying to uphold, this has not converted to a desire for an autocratic war instead.
Vladimir Putin speaks to President Xi in Shanghai in September.Credit:Pool Sputnik Kremlin
The report, Re:vision, found that while China and Russia had had some success in stopping major countries like India and Brazil from condemning the way in Ukraine, the desire in these countries was for a revived international order, with a greater voice for those currently not included.
“Neither Russia nor China are seen as offering an appealing vision to the world,” the report said. “Almost no one outside of China or Russia wants to live in a world shaped mainly by the two autocracies.”
The report said that without “serious reckoning” of past mistakes and reforms that appeal to a wider global citizenry, discontent with the current order would continue.
“Liberal democracies need to build a larger coalition of states beyond the liberal-democratic core,” the report said.
“For too long, democracies have overestimated the attractiveness of the liberal, rules-based international order.”
The Index measured the views of 12,000 people living in the G7 countries, the BRICS countries minus Russia and Ukraine.
It found a drastic increase in the number of people living in G7 nations, in particular Germany and France, saying their governments should oppose China militarily.
Five of the G7 nations felt Russia was the number one risk with Germans most concerned with “skyrocketing” levels of concern detected in France.
The German government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has been criticised for its dependency on Russian gas and perceptions that it’s been slower to support Ukraine militarily compared to other Western allies.
However, under Scholz, Germany had slashed its dependence on Russian gas from 55 per cent to around 20 and has recently pledged to send tanks to Ukraine, after pressure from Britain and the United States.
In China, the greatest perceived risk was the coronavirus pandemic while in Brazil, India and Italy, respondents said climate change was their number one risk. Australia was not polled.
In Ukraine, less than one per cent of those surveyed wanted to live in a world shaped by Russia and China with 63 per cent preferring EU-dominance and 22 per cent wishing it were fashioned by the United States.
Around 90 per cent said Ukraine should continue fighting in light of continued bombing by Russia and in the case of a nuclear attack.
The report found signs of promising trends for democracies trying to push back against authoritarians.
“Dissatisfaction with the West in key countries in the ‘Global South’ does not translate into a desire to see China and Russia exercise more influence over the future international order,” the report said.
“Respondents in India, Brazil, and South Africa mostly want a greater role for developing nations when it comes to shaping international rules.
But when asked to rate the attractiveness of rules made by Russia and China as opposed to rules made by the US and Europe their choices were surprisingly clear.”
The Munich Security Conference report said that Russia’s war in Ukraine had served as a catalyst for rethinking the Western approach to China although views remained mixed about how to respond.
It said that Russia and China had failed to live up to its promises in Africa to donate their pledged vaccines with data showing the United States was by far the biggest donor of vaccines to the continent and that the global food crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion had led to discontent in countries that might have otherwise been more pro-Russian.
Recently, Russia has invested resources in promoting a Kremlin-friendly worldview in the Global South. China, meanwhile, has built an international news and information ecosystem that champions Beijing in the eyes of African, Asian and South American audiences.
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