New poll finds surge in support for Labour in rural areas could put top Tories – including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt – at risk of losing their seats at the general election
- The Conservatives currently hold 96 of the 100 most rural seats in England
Top Cabinet ministers could be at risk of losing their seats at the general election amid a surge in support for Labour among rural voters, a new poll has found.
The Survation survey found support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party had risen by 16 percentage points (to 35 per cent) since 2019 in England’s 100 most rural constituencies.
This put Labour only five points behind the Tories who, by contrast, saw an 18 percentage points fall in their support (to 41 per cent).
The Conservatives currently hold 96 of the 100 most rural seats in England but the research, conducted for the Country Land & Business Association, suggested the Tories could lose 20 seats in the ‘Rural Wall’ at a general election expected next year.
It indicated constituencies such as North East Somerset, held by former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Sherwood, held by Tory former chief whip Mark Spencer, would fall to Labour.
South West Surrey, the constituency of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and which has been Conservative since 1983, would fall to the Liberal Democrats, the study found.
The CLA suggested that Mel Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary who is MP for Central Devon, and Mark Harper, the Transport Secretary who is MP for Forest of Dean, were also threatened by falling rural support for the Tories.
The Survation survey found support for Labour had risen by 16 percentage points (to 35 per cent) since 2019 in England’s 100 most rural constituencies
The study suggested Rishi Sunak could see the Tories lose 20 seats in the ‘Rural Wall’ at a general election expected next year
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is among those Conservative MPs whose rural constituencies could be at risk at the general election
Mark Tufnell, president of the CLA, said: ‘In recent years, we’ve seen how quickly communities which feel left behind can rewrite the electoral map.
‘In 2024, it could be the countryside’s turn. There is a simple truth – no political party has at present shown that it understands, let alone shares, the aspirations of rural communities.
‘The outdated planning regime holding rural businesses back, the lack of affordable housing driving families out, the outdated infrastructure limiting entrepreneurs’ potential, it is all having a devastating impact.
‘Any party which is willing to develop a robust and ambitious plan for the rural economy will secure significant support.
‘Any party that wants to treat the countryside as a “museum” will be punished.’
The poll of more than 1,000 people in rural areas found 36 per cent of those asked agreed that the Tories ‘understands and respects rural communities and the rural way of life’.
This compared to 34 per cent who disagreed and 30 per cent who said they didn’t know.
For Labour, 31.6 per cent agreed that the party ‘understands and respects rural communities and the rural way of life’, while 31 per cent disagreed and 37.4 per cent said they didn’t know.
More than two-thirds (69 per cent) said the Government was not doing enough to address the cost-of-living crisis in rural communities.
And more than two-fifths (44 per cent) said reforms to the planning system would help stimulate growth in rural communities, compared to 26 per cent who said it wouldn’t.
Over the past two years, the Tories have been stung by by-election defeats to the Lib Demsn in Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton.
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