SNP faces losing 21 MPs at the next general election as devastating poll deepens the crisis engulfing the party in fresh blow to Humza Yousaf
- Pollsters YouGov said recent events in Scotland had taken a ‘serious toll’
- Its forecasts for every constituency are based on a survey of 3,500 voters
The crisis engulfing the SNP has deepened as a new poll shows it is on course to lose 21 seats at the next general election.
Several high-profile MPs could be voted out as recent troubles within the party damage its electoral hopes.
Among them are SNP deputy leader at Westminster Mhairi Black, former leadership contender Alison Thewliss and long-serving MP Angus MacNeil.
YouGov – which conducted the poll after Humza Yousaf became SNP leader and police searched the home of his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon as part of a probe into party finances – said its findings suggest recent events have ‘taken a serious toll’.
Its forecasts for every constituency are based on a survey of 3,500 voters across Scotland.
The crisis engulfing the SNP has deepened as a new poll shows it is on course to lose 21 seats at the next general election
YouGov – which conducted the poll after Humza Yousaf (pictured) became SNP leader and police searched the home of his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon as part of a probe into party finances – said its findings suggest recent events have ‘taken a serious toll’
YouGov predicts that the SNP would lose 23 seats to Labour, but could snatch back two from the Tories, including the Moray constituency of Scottish leader Douglas Ross. Labour, meanwhile, would take the constituency of Margaret Ferrier, the nationalist MP who is facing a 30-day suspension from the Commons for breaking Covid rules, which could trigger a by-election.
Patrick Grady, who was found by a Commons standards probe to have sexually harassed a staff member, is also at risk of losing his seat.
Patrick English, associate director of political and social research at YouGov, said: ‘The results show the SNP have some serious cause for concern, but will provide strong encouragement to Labour as they look ahead to the next general election.
‘Making significant gains in Scotland could be crucial to [Labour leader] Keir Starmer’s chances of heading into No 10 with a parliamentary majority next year, and these figures suggest his party is now making strong progress north of the Border.
‘That, plus the prospect of losing their own Scottish leader’s seat, will no doubt worry the Conservatives.’
The YouGov research, carried out between April 10 and May 21, suggests the SNP would fall from 48 seats to 27, with most of the losses to Labour in the Central Belt.
Labour would soar from one seat in Scotland to 24, while the Tories would fall from six seats to four and the Liberal Democrats would retain their four seats.
YouGov said its findings suggest that recent bad news stories for the SNP, ‘including accusations of party mismanagement and potential criminal cases being brought against senior officials, have taken a serious toll’.
A Tory spokesman said: ‘It’s clear voters are increasingly turned off by the scandal and civil war engulfing the SNP and their obsession with independence over the real priorities of the Scottish people.’
Labour’s shadow Scottish secretary Ian Murray said: ‘Scotland is ready for change and it falls to Scottish Labour to deliver it.
‘The people of Scotland are sick and tired of Tory and SNP sleaze and failure. Scotland needs a fresh start with a majority Labour government.
‘Under Anas Sarwar’s leadership Scottish Labour will continue to earn back the public’s trust so we can deliver the change Scotland needs.’
In Ms Ferrier’s Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency, the YouGov poll puts Labour on 42 per cent and the SNP on 36 per cent.
A recall petition is likely to be triggered once MPs vote on her suspension, with a by-election likely to take place as early as August.
YouGov also predicts that Labour would win six of the seven Glasgow seats back from the SNP.
The research, which does not take into account boundary changes likely to come into force at the next election, indicates that as well as Moray, the Tories could lose West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.
However, the Conservatives are the nearest challenger to the SNP in several seats outside the Central Belt, including Angus, Argyll and Bute, Gordon, Ochil and South Perthshire, and Perth and North Perthshire.
Scottish Tory insiders insist they expect to make at least a couple of gains on their current six seats, and that double figures is ‘not out of the realms of possibility’.
The Lib Dems are also confident of gaining further ground in key targets.
A party spokesman said: ‘In seats like East Dunbartonshire and Ross, Skye and Lochaber, we’re nipping at the heels of the failed SNP and offering a brighter alternative for communities.’
Nationalist MP David Linden said: ‘Voting SNP is the only way to get rid of unelected Conservative governments in Scotland for good.
‘The SNP is the only party in Scotland offering a real alternative to the Conservatives and pro-Brexit Labour Party, handing voters the opportunity to escape the mess of Brexit and rejoin the EU with the full powers of independence.’
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