“Tactics without strategy is noise before defeat.” Chinese general, military strategist and philosopher Sun Tzu is too often quoted but can occasionally illuminate a real problem.
This week, when China sent a near record number of warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, it was more serious than previous incursions. A week earlier, China officially claimed the Taiwan Strait to be China’s sovereign territory. The West responded by reiterating legal arguments against the claim. But that misses the point. It is not a legal claim. Instead, China has declared its intent to act as if the Taiwan Strait is part of sovereign China. The difference has enormous implications, and we misread it at our peril.
The surveillance aircraft was intercepted by a Chinese J-16 fighter jet.Credit:AP
Relatedly, a Chinese J-16 fighter intercepted an Australian P-8 surveillance aircraft near the Paracel Islands on May 26, 2022, and then damaged it with flares and chaff. Australia responded firmly. Minister for Defence Richard Marles declared Australia’s surveillance flights will continue because they are allowed under international law and are “fundamentally important to Australia’s security interests”. He may be right on both accounts, but the strength of Australia’s commitment will be severely tested.
Also on May 26, 2022, one of Canada’s surveillance aircraft was harassed by Chinese aircraft in another part of the Pacific. Canada also protested to the Chinese government. But rather than being apologetic, Chinese leaders robustly defended China’s actions and attacked Australia and Canada for violating China’s sovereignty.
The narrative of a non-aggressive China is not supported by history.
Taken together, China’s actions signal a new, more assertive and deadly phase of its plan to secure its eastern seaboard by dominating the South China Sea. And China is only warming up. It has a plan to challenge the West’s commitment to military deployments in the South China Sea and divide the US from its allies.
That is more than a diplomatic impasse. Where will this situation lead when both sides continue to assert their rights? Is this part of a considered strategy by Australia? Does Australia have a plan to protect surveillance aircraft from similar incidents and potentially worse? How far will Australia go to enforce its rights under international law? These are fundamental considerations in a strategy, and if they are missing from operational plans, disaster is just around the corner.
By responding tactically to these incidents, and not seeing the pattern and understanding them as a milestone in China’s deadly strategy, our response looks dangerously like noise before our defeat. Australia, and the West, have missed the bigger picture – the strategic overlay of China’s plans and intent of which these incidents are just a prelude to something bigger and more deadly.
The narrative of a non-aggressive China is not supported by history. After all, China attacked UN troops in Korea in 1950, attacked India in 1962, ambushed Soviet forces and instigated a border conflict in 1969, invaded Vietnam in 1979, and attacked India again in 2021.
This is an established and recognised pattern in China’s method of war. Henry Kissinger refers to it as China’s “offensive deterrence concept”, and “pre-emptive strategy”. Graham Allison, in Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap?, calls it China’s “active defence.”
There are four elements common to all of these actions by China. The first is China’s action was a surprise attack; the second, it dealt a significant blow to China’s opponent; third, China was prepared to absorb significant losses in the action; and fourth, China secured the strategic objective of deterring its opponent from further action that China deemed a security risk.
Full military conflict is not China’s preferred style. Rather, it is far more likely to launch a limited but deadly surprise attack against an opponent at a time and place of its choosing, followed by disinformation and diplomatic efforts to limit the conflict.
China is a sophisticated power and strategist.
When it launches its attack, China will feel that it has given the West fair warning. It has for many years protested surveillance activities by aircraft and ships in waters close to its coast. Those protests have grown increasingly belligerent. The action against Australian and Canadian aircraft and declaring sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait further signal China’s serious escalation. More is to come.
This is bad news for Australia, because China will not de-escalate. Rather, even more severe action can be expected if the flights continue.
China is a sophisticated power and strategist. When it launches a lethal attack, several parameters will be evident. First, China will attack an ally of the US, not the US itself. That will delay and complicate the US response because the US itself is not under attack. The second is that China’s attack will be at a time and place that disadvantages the West – US carriers not in theatre; some other major distraction for the US. Third, China’s post-attack phase will already be in place. It will have its narrative ready to go, accusing the other country of some gross threat or violation. It will incite the Chinese people and muddy the international view of what actually took place. China will call for calm and dialogue, but will be uncompromising in asserting its rights over the area the incident took place.
Neither Australia nor Canada could respond to such an attack in a meaningful military way. The US would likely be caught wrong-footed, with Chinese forces primed for a response. And the US would likely struggle to convince the world that China’s action was unprovoked aggression that justifies a significant military response. Some actions against China would no doubt be taken, but after a tense stand-off, calm will prevail, and the US ally will be left to lick its wounds.
For China, the benefit will be that the US and its allies will be far more cautious in asserting their rights to fly and sail where they claim international law allows. China will have, again, gained a significant strategic objective, and to the list of surprise attacks by China, an entry of “South China Sea, 202?″ is likely to be added.
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